Bitcoin’s upward momentum has significantly waned since June, with prices hovering in a narrow range despite staying above $100,000. The current lateral movement has heightened warnings from analysts who believe in the four-year cycle theory of a potential bear market. However, long-term technical indicators, particularly the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), still offer hope for the bulls.
200-Week Average Supports Bullish Cycle
According to TradingView data, Bitcoin’s 200-week SMA is currently positioned around $54,750, which trails considerably behind the approximately $70,000 peak of the 2021 cycle. Historically, at the end of Bitcoin 
$78,262 bullish cycles, this average has often reached or tested the previous peak price. Similar intersections were observed at the end of 2017 and the beginning of 2021.
Experts emphasize that the current trend hasn’t yet followed this pattern, suggesting that the long-term uptrend is still intact. The short-term stagnation is interpreted as a natural part of the cyclical market structure.
However, relying entirely on historical technical patterns for decision-making is risky, as Bitcoin’s nearly decade-long history includes only two such similar scenarios. Therefore, the fact that the 200-week average has not yet reached the previous peak alone doesn’t signify a definitive bullish signal.
Will History Repeat for Bitcoin? Analysts Are Divided
While market observers perceive the relationship between the 200-week SMA and past cycles as a bullish ray of hope, they also note that the growing participation of institutional investors could prevent past patterns from repeating identically. During the 2017 and 2021 periods, the market was largely shaped by individual investors. Today, institutions, ETFs, and large trading desks play a decisive role in Bitcoin’s price.
As a result, the influence of historical averages on determining market direction seems to be weakening. Nonetheless, the 200-week average remains one of the strongest support indicators for long-term investors in technical analysis.
