Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP extended their rallies on Monday, continuing the strong momentum they built over the previous week. Bitcoin climbed above $81,300, gaining more than 5% over the last seven days. Ethereum advanced by over 6% during the same period to trade above $2,600, while XRP maintained levels above $1.40 after a weekly rise exceeding 5%.
Momentum shifts and onchain signals
Technical momentum indicators across the three leading cryptocurrencies signaled a strengthening bullish trend, suggesting that buyers could continue to push prices higher in the short term. For Bitcoin, the break above $81,000 marked the recapture of the True Market Mean, an important onchain metric that often signals a return to bullish conditions for the market leader.
The True Market Mean, currently estimated at $76,660, represents the average acquisition cost of actively trading participants in the Bitcoin market. When the price moves above this level, it suggests that most recent buyers are holding unrealized gains, often improving broader sentiment.
Mini dictionary: True Market Mean, an onchain analysis measure, calculates the average price at which active Bitcoin holders acquired their coins, offering insights into collective market sentiment and profit positioning.
Glassnode, a leading onchain analytics firm, commented in a recent report that this recovery above the True Market Mean signals a return to bullish territory for Bitcoin. They emphasized the importance of upcoming resistance zones tied to large holders and institutional investors.
Corporate and ETF cost bases in focus
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s next potential barriers include the average cost bases of corporate treasuries and US spot Bitcoin ETF investors. The average cost for corporate treasury buyers is approximately $80,421, meaning Bitcoin’s surge above $81,000 recently put many corporate holders back into profit.
For US spot Bitcoin ETF investors, the estimated cost basis stands higher at about $85,638. These metrics serve as important psychological and technical levels, since holders at or near break-even might be inclined to sell, creating resistance around these zones.
| Holder group | Average cost basis |
|---|---|
| True Market Mean (active traders) | $76,660 |
| Corporate treasuries | $80,421 |
| US spot ETF investors | $85,638 |
Glassnode noted that approximately 1.07 million BTC were acquired between $83,000 and $86,000, with a substantial portion held by long-term investors. This creates a dense resistance area, as some participants may look to sell near their entry price.
If Bitcoin’s price rises and triggers short liquidations in this zone, forced buying by short sellers could create a short squeeze, increasing upward pressure. Glassnode observed a steady accumulation of short positions over recent weeks, increasing the chances of a volatile breakout if Bitcoin moves through this range.
Glassnode stated that leveraged short positions around $83,000 to $86,000 could amplify volatility if Bitcoin triggers mass liquidations, potentially driving the price quickly through resistance.
Their data also suggests that the wider crypto market’s leveraged activity remains below levels associated with excessive speculation, indicating further potential for upward movement—though open interest is rising, and so are broader risks.
Bitcoin technicals and outlook
Bitcoin is trading above $81,200, staying well above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which are clustered between $72,000 and $75,000. This technical structure supports the prevailing uptrend, with the 50-day EMA remaining above longer-term averages.
The next critical resistance for Bitcoin stands near $85,000. Indicators such as the Relative Strength Index, currently at 64, and a turned-positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) point to strengthening bullish momentum, though both remain below overbought extremes.
The combination of rising EMAs and positive momentum suggests Bitcoin maintains a bullish posture, provided it can break decisively above $85,000. Failure to surpass this level could trigger a consolidation phase or increased profit-taking.
On the downside, dynamic support is found at the 50-day EMA near $74,807. Below that, the 200-day EMA around $73,458 and the 100-day EMA approximately at $72,240 form a key support cluster. Horizontal supports at $66,500 and $62,300 offer additional protection in the event of a deeper pullback.
For now, Bitcoin’s strong position above major moving averages and robust momentum place the $85,000 resistance as the main target for market participants.
