Bitcoin 
$78,774, the largest cryptocurrency, saw its price slip below $100,000 over the weekend but quickly rebounded above $106,000. Analysts note that the latest drop stopping at $97,000 might trigger a response reaching up to $110,000. According to 10x Research, despite $63 billion entering the market in 2024, Bitcoin has only risen by 13% since the start of the year, indicating that it is no longer reacting as strongly as in previous cycles. Investors are adapting to lower volatility by shifting their capital into a smaller number of major cryptocurrencies. On the macroeconomic front, following the Federal Reserve’s surprise 50 basis point rate cut last September, inflation has remained stable at 2.4% for three months, with unemployment steady at 4.2%. As markets await the July 15 CPI data, the $97,000 support is closely watched as the potential last dip level.
Key Support and Resistance Levels on the Bitcoin Chart
The $97,000 level on the chart is defined as the “last entry zone” and is considered a strong response area for buyers. While the psychological support at $100,000 remains, it is now regarded as a “minor support”. If the price fails to hold above this threshold, the $97,000 level might be tested. The consolidation range between $100,000 and $106,000 suggests that large-scale breakouts may remain limited until mid-July.
On the resistance side, the $106,000 level serves as the first recovery point after the weekend drop. Analyst Astronomer indicates that if the price sustains above this, the target would be $110,000. This level stands out as the initial major barrier for a price surge, provided the $97,000 support holds. It is often reminded that weekend lows tend to be retested, suggesting that despite short-term volatility, there is a cautious optimism in the broader trend.
Effects of Macro Data and Geopolitical Developments
Despite billions of dollars flowing into Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, the price remaining muted indicates that “positioning style over money” is coming to the forefront. According to 10x Research, as volatility decreases, investors are moving away from leverage and into major cryptocurrencies. This approach dampens the upward momentum in the short term.
Following last year’s surprise interest rate cut by the Fed, the increase in bond yields reflected the market’s questioning of this decision. However, the stabilization of inflation at 2.4% and unchanged unemployment rates bolster the “soft landing” scenario. In the geopolitical arena, the Israel-Iran ceasefire supports risk appetite and contributed to Bitcoin rising to $106,000 earlier in the week. Nonetheless, investors appear cautious until the arrival of the July CPI data.
As liquidity inflows continue, the true direction of the price will be determined by macro data as well as how market participants adapt to this low volatility environment. Stable ETF flows, the addition of cryptocurrencies to corporate balance sheets, and growth in the stablecoin market are being monitored as supportive factors for an upward trend.
