As the Bitcoin market continues to search for direction, recent assessments by Ki Young Ju have reshaped expectations going into 2026. The CEO of CryptoQuant argued that new capital inflows into Bitcoin have noticeably slowed, suggesting a protracted period of stagnant prices rather than a sharp downturn. Following a volatile close to 2025, Bitcoin trading just below critical recovery levels makes these observations particularly pertinent to the market. According to Ju, the current scenario points neither to a sudden crash nor a swift rise.
Weakening of Bitcoin’s Classic Cycle
In his analysis shared on the X platform, Ki Young Ju emphasized that fresh cash flows into Bitcoin are no longer as strong as in previous cycles. Ju noted that a significant portion of capital has shifted towards stocks and commodities, asserting that the transformation in market structure has rendered timing-focused strategies largely obsolete. He also highlighted that with institutional investors taking long-term positions, the nature of supply behavior has fundamentally changed.
In this context, Ju dismissed concerns that large investors would unsettle the market with sudden sell-offs. He deemed it unrealistic for the roughly 673,000 BTC held by Strategy to be released into the market in the short term. According to him, it has become increasingly difficult to replicate the deep pullbacks seen in previous bear markets.
Consequently, Ju stated that he does not expect a sharp collapse following a peak in Bitcoin prices. Instead, he anticipates a flat trajectory that he described as “boring” over the coming months. His warning to investors positioning for a short-term crash is clear: those betting on a sudden collapse are likely to be disappointed.
On-Chain Data Supports Flat Scenario
Ju’s perspectives are consistent with Blockchain on-chain data. According to analyst CryptoZeno, Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss indicator is at 0.3, historically positioning itself as a balance zone between recovery and renewed risk appetite. The data, which shows the average investor is in limited profit, indicates that excessive enthusiasm has not yet formed.
A similar situation was mentioned in the Week On-Chain report published by Glassnode on January 7th. The report stated that Bitcoin entered 2026 with a “cleaner” market structure, fewer profit-taking sales, and significantly liquidated derivative positions. In the U.S., the reversal to positive of spot ETF flows was viewed as a recovery signal, though these inflows have not yet stabilized.
Meanwhile, market participants are not in full agreement. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes Bitcoin’s recovery could continue if regulatory uncertainties in Washington diminish and there is no severe drop in stock markets. More cautious commentators, however, maintain that downward risks have not been entirely eliminated as the year progresses.
