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Experienced crypto currency analyst Benjamin Cowen, recently shared his views on the current state of Bitcoin, which is trading around $63,000, in a video market analysis. The analyst warned that a summer crash could be on the table for the largest cryptocurrency.
Analyst’s Alarming “Summer Crash” Prediction
Speaking to thousands of subscribers on his YouTube channel, Cowen said Bitcoin’s price movement is more similar to the price movement following the second block reward halving eight years ago than the more recent block reward halving in 2020. He pointed out that many in the Bitcoin community are drawing parallels between the current cycle and the 2016 cycle, stating that this is a correct approach.
Cowen examined the Post-Halving Bitcoin Investment Return (ROI) metric to provide further analysis. For those unaware, this metric measures the current price of Bitcoin relative to its price at the moment of the block reward halving. It is known that Bitcoin’s 4th and last block reward halving occurred on April 19, 2024.
By making comparisons with the 2016 cycle, the analyst emphasized that Bitcoin might not permanently surpass an ROI about three and a half months after the block reward halving. This analysis suggests that the largest cryptocurrency could potentially be pulled to the bottom of the cycle in the coming weeks, which could likely mean a summer crash for Bitcoin. This prediction shows that it could present a significant buying opportunity for Bitcoin.
Cowen stated that it is not possible to predict exactly how events will unfold, adding that comparing Bitcoin’s investment return to the 2016 cycle makes a compelling argument for a potential summer downturn.
Current Status of Bitcoin’s Price
Despite various speculations surrounding Bitcoin’s price trajectory, the largest cryptocurrency has recorded a 3.38% increase in the last 24 hours, trading at $63,019. Despite this strong performance in the last 24 hours, various market metrics indicate that investors predominantly prefer to stay out of the market and are waiting for more clarity on BTC’s future direction.
