Bitcoin investors who entered the market during the latter part of 2025 are now capping price gains at $87,700, according to fresh analysis from Glassnode. The study attributes this resistance to the aggregated cost basis of these holders, which is now acting as a ceiling for further upward moves.
$87,700 emerges as major resistance zone
Glassnode, an onchain analytics provider specializing in blockchain-based market insights, identified that Bitcoin’s price action is increasingly constrained by the breakeven points of specific investor cohorts. Two main groups—holders who bought six to twelve months ago and those who purchased one to two years ago—now influence key resistance areas as the market tests their entry levels.
The first group, which accumulated BTC during the second half of 2025, has a collective cost basis of roughly $87,700. This level coincides with additional resistance, including the 2026 opening price at $87,490 and the 20-month simple moving average at $87,165.
Bitcoin’s trajectory has repeatedly stalled each time it approaches these breakeven price points. Price action in November 2025 and January 2026 demonstrated that attempts to move above investors’ cost bases at $94,000 and $97,100, respectively, faced substantial selling pressure, resulting in sharp corrections. Glassnode highlighted similar dynamics with the group that entered one to two years prior, where selling pressure surged as their cost basis, currently $99,500, was tested.
“Bitcoin rose to the 6-12 month cost basis in January and then fell by more than a third. It met the 1-2 year cost basis in May and fell by about a quarter. The 1-2 year holders also stepped up their selling into the rally at the start of October,” Glassnode noted in its commentary.
This pattern suggests that underwater investors, eager to exit at breakeven, have established a formidable resistance barrier just above $87,000. These sell orders have repeatedly overwhelmed new demand, making it difficult for BTC to advance beyond this level.
| Cohort | Current Cost Basis |
|---|---|
| 6-12 months | $87,700 |
| 1-2 years | $99,500 |
ETF inflows provide strong support near $80,000
On the support side, institutional flows into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to strengthen the $80,000 level. Glassnode placed the average ETF holder’s cost basis at $81,500, creating a critical support zone between $80,000 and $81,500.
If Bitcoin’s price were to dip below this range, other notable support layers include the true market mean of $77,500—the average acquisition price for all secondary market BTC purchases—and the short-term holder cost basis at $74,600. These price levels have become magnets for bid liquidity as market participants concentrate buy orders just under ETF-related support.
Glassnode commented that a decisive breakdown below the $80,000 to $81,500 range would expose the market to further downside, with liquidation clusters and the true market mean potentially coming into play.
“The block sits just under the US Spot ETF Cost Basis, so the zone between $80K and $81.5K is where order-book and on-chain support overlap. A break below it would bring the liquidation cluster just under $80K, and then the True Market Mean near $78K, into play,” said analysts at Glassnode.
As a result, Bitcoin’s price remains boxed in by selling pressure from underwater holders above $87,000 and a build-up of buy-side liquidity and institutional accumulation near $80,000.
| Support Level | Price |
|---|---|
| ETF cost basis | $81,500 |
| True market mean | $77,500 |
| Short-term holder cost basis | $74,600 |
Mini dictionary: Glassnode, an onchain analytics provider, delivers data-driven market intelligence for cryptocurrencies, offering insights into investor behavior and blockchain network fundamentals.
