Bitcoin (BTC) recently experienced notable volatility, dropping to $62,498 on August 1, the lowest in two weeks. This decline is attributed to reduced expectations of a rate cut in the US and the distribution of 47,000 BTC from the bankrupt Mt. Gox exchange. Investors are now closely monitoring key support and resistance levels to identify the next significant buying opportunity.
Critical Support and Resistance Levels for Bitcoin
Analyst Stockmoney Lizards noted on August 2 that Bitcoin is approaching a critical point, offering a potential entry point for market participants. According to technical analysis, Bitcoin’s recent price movement is characterized by a classic 5-wave upward trend followed by an ABC correction. This pattern is evident as an Elliott Wave formation on the 4-hour chart.
The first buying level to consider is in the range of $61,880 to $62,300. The analyst defined this range as a critical support zone, strengthened by the confluence of various technical indicators such as the 1.618% Fibonacci extension, 0.5% Fibonacci retracement, and Value Area Low (VAL). A recovery from this range could indicate the continuation of the upward trend over higher time frames. However, if the price fails to hold above this support zone, the next critical level to watch is around $56,810, corresponding to the 2.618% Fibonacci extension. This level could present a new buying opportunity if the price does not hold the initial support.
On the upside, the first significant resistance for Bitcoin is at $66,745, marked by the Point of Control (POC). Historically, this level has acted as a major resistance point, and a breakout supported by strong trading volume could indicate a buying opportunity that could push the price to new highs. Additionally, the Value Area High (VAH) around $69,885 also serves as resistance and is a critical level to watch closely.
Why is Bitcoin Dropping?
Currently, Bitcoin’s price is under selling pressure due to multiple factors. On July 31, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep interest rates at 5.25%, in line with market expectations. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized strong GDP growth and confidence in reducing inflation, signaling a cautious approach to future rate cuts.
In response, investors increased their investments in US Treasury bonds as a safe haven, with the five-year yield falling to a six-month low. This shift was further influenced by rising geopolitical tensions and increasing unemployment claims.
Another significant factor was the distribution of nearly $3 billion worth of Bitcoin from Mt. Gox on July 30. This created fears of a potential selling wave. The distributed BTC was transferred to exchanges like Kraken and Bitstamp, contributing to the recent price drop as investors anticipated a significant market impact.
