Only months, weeks remain, and the legendary herald of four-year cycles, Bitcoin, is nearing its block reward halving. The halving expected to occur in April has always caused great excitement among cryptocurrency investors. So, what should those who have only become acquainted with crypto currencies a few years ago and have not experienced this period need to know?
Bitcoin Halving Expectations
Halving cuts the block rewards in half and reduces the speed of new supply entering daily circulation by 50%. This has led to price increases to date as the incoming supply weakens while demand rises. With the significant milestone of April 2024 just 60 days away, an important pattern emerges when looking back at Bitcoin‘s history.
Correction Before Halving
Before each block reward halving, there is always a notable drop in Bitcoin’s price. This is actually a signal for experienced investors that “the bull is coming.” For example, just a few months before the 2012 halving, there was a drop of about 50% in the price of BTC. However, afterward, we saw the price rush to new all-time high (ATH) levels.
Similar price movements were experienced in the 2016 and 2020 periods. Investors saw price drops of 40% and 63% respectively, with many panicking while those with sufficient experience sat back and watched.
Therefore, it should not be surprising if the Bitcoin price, which has increased by more than 21% since the beginning of 2024, soon experiences a drop below $45,000.
Rise After Halving
Data from 2012, 2016, and 2020 tell us not only about the drops. After the halving took place, we saw BTC’s price experience exhilarating rises of 11,000%, 3,072%, and 700% respectively. Each new ATH level seemed insurmountable, yet it was surpassed in the following bull market, reaching much higher peaks.
If the upcoming bull market reflects past movements, Bitcoin’s price should reach its next historic peak during the April-October 2025 period. Plan B’s strategy at the end of 2021 made him even more famous, and this model advocates “buying six months before Halving and selling 18 months after.”
So will history repeat itself? If everyone was certain of this, Bitcoin’s price would have to keep rising without ever falling. And Bitcoin could one day keep falling without ever rising because claiming this won’t happen is just as baseless as ignoring the possibility. Therefore, all investors must analyze their own risks and make decisions (historical data, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, expert opinions, etc.) after considering everything and bear the consequences.
