Bitcoin is undergoing a noteworthy transition in terms of moving averages, with its price maintaining short-term supports while remaining below the highs seen at the end of 2025. Data from CryptoQuant’s Binance Moving Average Convergence indicator suggest that the market is neither firmly bullish nor bearish at this stage. Instead, the signals point to a phase of stabilization, rather than the onset of a new trend.
Crucial Moving Average Levels
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $73,000, keeping its head above the 30-day moving average at $68,661. However, the cryptocurrency is still falling short of its 90-day ($79,815) and 200-day ($93,892) moving averages—levels that remain out of reach since surging to as high as $107,000 in previous months. Holding above the 30-day average indicates short-term buying momentum, suggesting the absence of a sharp downtrend. Yet trading below both the 90-day and 200-day averages underscores that Bitcoin has not yet reestablished its long-term upward momentum following its earlier rally.
There is a gap of roughly $21,000 between the current price and the 200-day moving average. Market watchers do not expect this distance to close rapidly. For Bitcoin to reclaim its long-term average, it would require a strong and sustained upward move—something the current price behavior does not seem to foreshadow in the near future.
What Does the Z-Score Reveal?
Another key metric is the Z-score, which currently stands at approximately -0.57. This figure measures how far Bitcoin’s price is from its historical average. A Z-score close to zero means the price is aligned with its long-term mean, while positive values show the price is above average and negative ones indicate a dip below historical norms.
A reading of -0.57 suggests that Bitcoin is trading just below its historical norm, but not in territory typically associated with sharp bottoms or excessive undervaluation. Past bear markets, such as those in 2018 and 2022, saw much deeper negative Z-scores during fierce sell-offs. The current figure reflects a more balanced scenario, nestled within the range that historically characterized periods of accumulation and transitions into new rallies.
Cyclical Perspective and Price Behavior
Examining the macro chart from 2017 through 2026 emphasizes a repeating cycle in Bitcoin’s price movements. After each block reward halving, there is an initial period in which moving averages converge, followed by upward expansion alongside the price. Today, the wide spread among the 30-day, 90-day, and 200-day averages reveals that a significant correction has swept from the short term into the long term. When these averages eventually converge—and the short-term average crosses above the long-term metrics—it has often signaled the start of a new bullish cycle.
At present, the 30-day average sits $11,000 below the 90-day, and around $25,000 beneath the 200-day average. For the short-term average to overtake its longer-term counterparts, Bitcoin’s price will need a concrete and lasting recovery. Such a process typically spans more than just a few days—a longer reset is generally involved.
The overall indicators today are broadly in sync with conditions observed at previous cycle lows. The Z-score remains within accumulation territory, while the price itself holds comfortably above the shortest moving average. Meanwhile, the long-established trend line stretching back to 2017 maintains its upward slope, with Bitcoin consistently staying above this line on a macro scale.
The latest chart reading reveals that while Bitcoin has not slipped into a bear market, it also lacks a clear signal for an imminent bull run. The current pattern suggests the market is experiencing one of those rebalancing periods frequently seen in the interim phases of the crypto cycle.
