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Bitcoin‘s (TC) Bull-Bear market cycle indicator signaled a bear market for the first time since January 2023 when the price fell below $50,000, but just three days later, the indicator started signaling a bull market again. This situation shows that investors’ perceptions of the current conditions in the cryptocurrency market are changing rapidly.
Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator Turns Bullish
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated in his August 9th X post, “Most of Bitcoin’s on-chain cyclical indicators are hovering at the borderline, now starting to signal a bull market again.” Ju noted that Bitcoin is still in a bull market, arguing that the drop at the beginning of the week only offered a “discount opportunity” for a short period.
On August 5th, Bitcoin fell to $48,800 on a day called “Crypto Black Monday,” marking the first time since February that the price dropped below $50,000. Following this, the price quickly recovered and as of August 8th, it rose back above the critical $60,000 level.
The Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator gave its first bear signal in this period right after the FTX collapse in January 2023. This signal was also supported by the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which reached the “Extreme Fear” level of 17 on August 6th, the lowest level since the FTX collapse. The index then quickly recovered to 48, corresponding to the “Neutral” level.
Some analysts suggest that the major crash in Bitcoin on Monday could be a bear trap. The concept of a bear trap is defined as experienced investors selling Bitcoin in a controlled manner to temporarily lower the price and trap investors who open short positions.
Market Experts Are Divided
In contrast, market experts are divided on the future of Bitcoin. Some analysts note that this drop resembles trends seen before past bull runs, while others take a more cautious approach. 10x Research Head of Research Markus Thielen made a surprising statement, saying, “We expect Bitcoin’s price to fall to the lower levels of $40,000 to ideally time the entry into the next bull market.”
Cathie Wood’s investment firm Ark Invest stated in a report dated August 6th that the most important price support levels for Bitcoin are $52,000 and $46,000. Experienced investor Peter Brandt said that the recent drop in Bitcoin’s price resembles the 2015-2017 bull market cycle and could be a harbinger of a possible bull run.
