Renowned analyst Benjamin Cowen warns that Bitcoin (BTC) 
$64,709 might experience a correction at the beginning of 2025, following its first halving year. Historical patterns show that previous halving years have seen significant price corrections in January, prompting Cowen to highlight the possibility of Bitcoin facing double-digit percentage declines during this period.
Historical Corrections
Cowen emphasizes that in the aftermath of the last two halvings, January corrections averaged around 30%. He noted that similar patterns occurred in January 2017 and 2021, with Bitcoin dropping approximately 30% during those months.
“At least in the last two halving years, a correction occurred in January. In 2017 and 2021, we recorded about a 30% drop in January.” – Benjamin Cowen
However, Cowen suggests that this year’s trajectory might differ. He pointed out that a correction already occurred in December, indicating that it could reflect expectations for January’s correction.
“The counterargument is that Bitcoin may have already declined in December, possibly anticipating January’s correction.” – Benjamin Cowen
Interest Rates and Cryptocurrencies
Cowen attributes Bitcoin’s December decline to rising interest rates on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds. He argues that these historically high rates may have hindered Bitcoin’s upward momentum.
“10-year interest rates are at the highest levels in Bitcoin’s history, potentially restricting upward movement.” – Benjamin Cowen
If a correction occurs, Bitcoin could decline to around $77,712, which is aligned with its 10-week moving average. Cowen believes this action could confirm market expectations. Nonetheless, even though BTC typically experiences double-digit drops in halving years, it often recovers to reach all-time highs, suggesting that significant losses should not be expected.
With historical data and economic indicators in mind, Bitcoin investors may face the risk of a correction at the start of 2025. Those considering Bitcoin investments should closely monitor market trends and economic indicators for better decision-making.
