The recent dramatic downturn in the cryptocurrency market has led analysts to draw parallels with previous bear cycles. Blockchain analytics platform CryptoQuant reports that the current bear cycle is weaker at its onset compared to 2022, with a faster loss of momentum. Since November, Bitcoin has plunged below significant technical levels, eroding investor confidence and highlighting deepening market fragility.
Bitcoin’s Technical Outlook Deteriorates Quickly
According to CryptoQuant data, after Bitcoin dropped below its 365-day moving average in November, it lost 23% of its value within just 83 days. By contrast, the decline at the beginning of 2022 was only 6%, indicating a more severe trend in the current cycle. The platform emphasizes that the existing performance is worse than the start of the previous bear market.
At the start of October, Bitcoin hit the $126,000 mark, showing strong growth when the “Bull Score Index” was at 80. However, following a wave of liquidations on October 10, the index plummeted to zero. The price falling to $71,000 revealed widespread structural weakness.
Analysts note that Bitcoin has been rejected three times at a crucial support and resistance level known as the “Traders’ On-chain Realized Price.” Moreover, the price dipping below the lower band of this indicator suggests that areas serving as support in bullish phases have lost functionality. CryptoQuant indicates that the price could target the $70,000 to $60,000 range.
Market Sentiment and Pressure in the Crypto Ecosystem
Data from Santiment shows that sentiment towards Bitcoin and Ethereum has become extremely negative following recent sharp declines. The platform suggests that periods of intense pessimism among individual investors may increase the likelihood of short-term recoveries. Historical data demonstrates that the market often moves contrary to retail investor sentiment.
Glassnode reports that the bear market has intensified with profitability readjusting and increased realized losses. Weak spot demand and the unwinding of leveraged positions are key factors exacerbating price pressure. Additionally, the Fear and Greed Index plunging to 12 indicates widespread panic in the markets.
The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies fell by 4.4% with the latest drop, reaching $2.53 trillion, the lowest since April 2025. In Asian trading, Bitcoin dipped below $71,000, heading towards a support region around $65,000. Ethereum’s decline below $2,100 and altcoins losing up to 80% from peak values reflect deepening market weakness.
