Recent analyses and on-chain data suggest that it may take several more months before Bitcoin sees a new low, challenging the expectations of investors hoping for imminent price corrections. Experts observe a recurring pattern in Bitcoin’s price action, which shows that the cryptocurrency typically spends three years in an uptrend followed by a single year of decline throughout its history.
Market cycles and 2026 projection
Market analyst CryptoTice has reviewed Bitcoin’s historical patterns and noted a consistent chronology for each cycle. According to CryptoTice, each market cycle features approximately three years of upward movement, followed by a distinct year marked by significant price declines.
CryptoTice emphasizes that Bitcoin’s cycle of three years of gains and one year of steep losses has remained intact so far, advising investors waiting for a bottom to avoid rushing their decisions.
Based on this structure, some anticipate that Bitcoin’s next major low may not materialize until the end of 2026. CryptoTice points out that those who prematurely called the bottom in previous cycles, such as in 2018 and 2022, were proven mistaken. For instance, in 2018, many believed the bottom had arrived before the price dropped to $3,200; similarly, in 2022, “bottom” predictions came prior to the dip below $15,500.
The analyst contends that factors such as capital inflows, spot ETF approvals, or broader market sentiment do not directly influence Bitcoin’s cyclical patterns. Instead, he believes the key driver is the passage of time and the recurring nature of these market structures. For investors willing to wait and safeguard their capital, the next significant bottom in late 2026 could present an opportunity.
Binance reserves surge and selling pressure
On-chain specialist Rei Researcher notes a sharp increase in Bitcoin reserves on Binance at the end of May. During just a few days, total reserves on the platform climbed to 647,800 BTC.
As reserves on Binance surged, Bitcoin was trading around the $73,500 mark. This coincided with a slight weakening trend in the overall market. The movement of large amounts of cryptocurrency from major wallets to exchanges is commonly interpreted by analysts as a sign of impending short-term selling pressure.
Generally, an increase in exchange reserves is seen as an indicator that large investors may be preparing to sell their assets. The simultaneous rise in Binance’s reserves, weakening price action, and increased supply suggest that if Bitcoin fails to hold above $73,000, further declines could follow.
When combined with long-term cycle analyses, these developments lead many to adopt a more cautious approach to the current market landscape.
Mini glossary: Binance, founded in 2017, is the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by volume, allowing users to trade digital assets and access on-chain data.
Although short-term selling remains a concern, the prospect of a larger correction toward the end of 2026 gains credibility, according to cycle forecasts for Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.
