Bitcoin has matched and at times surpassed the performance of the S&P 500 in US trading sessions, according to the latest analysis from Glassnode. Data indicates that over the past 90 Wall Street sessions, Bitcoin recorded higher returns than the S&P 500 in exactly half of those sessions, signaling an end to a prolonged period during which Bitcoin trailed the major US equity benchmark.
Improved session performance for Bitcoin
This marked a notable reversal for Bitcoin, as its session win rate had remained consistently below 50% for much of the previous year. Glassnode analysts stated that Bitcoin’s 50% session win rate had not been exceeded since March 2025. Throughout that period, Bitcoin underperformed the S&P 500 in the majority of sessions.
The rolling 90-session measurement period concluded on Wednesday and demonstrated a renewed competitiveness of Bitcoin against traditional equity indices. Glassnode further noted that Bitcoin’s average per-session gains during this timeframe were also slightly higher than those of the S&P 500.
Glassnode observed that “the win rate has not been above 50% since March 2025; for most of the past year, Bitcoin lost more sessions than it won.”
Additional data highlighted that the rolling 20-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 currently stands at 0.63, according to figures from TradingView. This positive correlation has strengthened since August, parallel to gains seen in both markets as the US Treasury increased its debt buyback activity.
Stock market gains linked to election outcomes
While Bitcoin maintained a solid performance relative to equities, analysts have also examined the impact of US political developments on stock markets. Capriole Investments revealed that the S&P 500 has historically posted robust returns following US midterm elections in which Democrats secured control of both the House and Senate during Republican presidencies.
Capriole’s research showed that out of 26 midterm elections since 1922, Democrats achieved a sweep under a Republican president seven times. On each of those occasions, the S&P 500 delivered an average gain of 10.7% over the subsequent three months. Within six months, average returns rose to 17.5%, while the one-year average stood at 15.5%.
Capriole founder Charles Edwards characterized the recent election results as especially favorable for markets, noting, “There is simply no better election result for markets than we just had.”
Market observers have pointed to these historic averages as investors assess the short and long-term outlook for both traditional equities and digital assets such as Bitcoin. Correlations between major digital assets and US stock indices are also being monitored, as shifts in macroeconomic policy and political conditions continue to influence both asset classes.
With Bitcoin’s session-level returns now closely tracking and occasionally exceeding those of the S&P 500, market participants may benefit from tracking real-time price movements and correlation data. CryptoAppsy enables users to set smart price alerts and visualize up-to-date market correlations, providing a streamlined way to monitor both Bitcoin and equity markets in one interface during periods of heightened cross-asset volatility.
