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According to the Bitcoin price research platform Fundstrat, the current US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could reach an astonishing amount of $150,000 by the end of 2024, if approved. Two major events that investors are anticipating, halving and ETF applications, are coming up based on many comments made in relation to ETF applications.
Bitcoin Price Could Reach $180,000
Tom Lee, Managing Partner and Head of Research at Fundstrat, predicted in an interview with CNBC’s Squawk Box program on August 16 that a series of successful Bitcoin spot ETF applications would significantly shift Bitcoin’s supply-demand dynamics towards price increase. When asked what the price of Bitcoin could be by the end of next year, Lee did not hesitate:
“If the spot Bitcoin (ETF) is approved, I think the demand will exceed the daily supply of Bitcoin. Therefore, the price of Bitcoin could be above $150,000, even $180,000.”
Lee explained that this could be the case as there are already spot Bitcoin ETFs in Europe, and as long as there is an approved spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States.
According to senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, the United States currently accounts for 97.7% of the global trading volume for crypto-related ETFs. He said that when spot Bitcoin ETFs are approved, this percentage could increase to 99.5%.
However, even if spot ETF applications are rejected, Lee predicts a significant price increase for Bitcoin from the next halving event, which is expected to take place in April 2024.
“There will be another decrease in supply, so the swap price will need to increase. But it won’t be in the six-figure range.”
SEC Could Delay Applications Until 2024
In June, major Wall Street companies Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdom Tree, and Valkyrie followed the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, by applying for a Bitcoin ETF with the SEC. However, some of these firms may not learn their fate until 2024, as the SEC has up to 240 days to make a final decision on an application after initiating the review process.
ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart recently estimated that the chances of approval for these Bitcoin spot ETFs by the securities regulator are 65%. This estimate marks a significant increase compared to before BlackRock’s application.
With Blockstream CEO Adam Back recently betting that Bitcoin could reach a new price milestone one month before the next halving event, there have been suggestions that the $100,000 Bitcoin price could come much earlier than expected. However, not everyone agrees. Jesse Myer, co-founder of Bitcoin investment firm Onramp, stated on August 15 that the market’s changing reality will only be priced in 12-18 months after the halving event.
“Bitcoin will not rise to $100,000 before the next halving event.”
