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As of the time of this writing, Bitcoin 
$104,390 is poised to drop further, currently priced at $58,158. In the last 24 hours, it had briefly fallen to $58,112. Alongside the decline in cryptocurrencies, the U.S. stock markets are also facing difficulties. What factors contributed to the market downturn on September 16?
Cryptocurrencies on the Decline
The U.S. stock markets opened just 15 minutes before this article was completed, coinciding with Bitcoin’s drop to its daily low. This trend isn’t surprising, as there has been a persistent correlation between the opening of U.S. markets and downward movements in cryptocurrencies. Even following promising economic data, such as the recent inflation figures for August, we have noted that cryptocurrencies tend to decline upon market openings.
Currently, Bitcoin has reached a new daily low of $58,021 before recovering slightly to $58,110. This ongoing volatility has also triggered losses exceeding 3% in stocks of companies like Coinbase (COIN), MicroStrategy (MSTR), and NVIDIA.
Fed and Recession Concerns
When we shared August 2024 bankruptcy data, we highlighted that it represented one of the worst Augusts in the last four years. The surge in bankruptcies among large companies has heightened concerns regarding the U.S. economy. Notably, more than 50% of the layoffs reported occurred in technology companies.
Bankruptcies are rising while layoffs in tech companies hit historical levels, causing stocks of giants like NVIDIA to decline by 3% in just one day. The primary cause is the looming fears of an economic recession.
If the Fed opts for a 50 basis point rate cut, it could trigger discussions regarding the peak of recession fears. However, data already indicates that the economy is cooling, with unemployment rates at around 4.3% and significant downward revisions in employment figures. Additionally, we must consider the historical declines in risk markets during periods of policy shifts by the Fed.
If Powell fails to convey the desired message to the markets on Wednesday and cannot reflect optimism about a soft landing, challenges might arise in the coming months. On the other hand, a drop in interest rates would mean increased liquidity and a rise in risk markets. Therefore, unless there are significant surprises, cryptocurrencies and stocks should recover in the medium term.
Nonetheless, the European Central Bank has announced expectations of inflation increases in the fourth quarter. What implications will this have? A global increase could signal the onset of a more challenging period characterized by rising commodity prices amid global recession fears. We shall see.
