Inflation data came out extremely well, yet BTC price dropped. Normally, it should have surpassed $60,000. Despite a much more positive macroeconomic outlook compared to a few months ago, BTC is lingering at $57,200 as of the time of writing. So, while inflation is falling and employment is easing, what is choking crypto investors?
Why Aren’t Cryptocurrencies Rising?
CPI was expected to be 3.1% and was announced as 3%, falling more than expected. Monthly inflation also decreased. However, BTC continues to linger below $58,000. While a rate cut for September is certain, these meaningless movements have even driven old investors crazy. The crypto analyst known as DaanCrypto addressed the current situation.
According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s weakness can be attributed to scalpers and market makers trying to liquidate leveraged long positions. Indeed, approximately $300 million worth of positions added before the data was announced started to decline as BTC moved in the opposite direction it should have gone.
However, Bitcoin should soon return to $60,000 with the impact of all these accumulated good news. Before the Fed starts cutting rates, exits from safe havens offering fixed returns should begin, and some of these should seek gains in risk markets. The BTC ETF started trading on exchanges with perfect timing in this regard. Moreover, while stocks are reaching record levels, Gold is rallying.
Expert Opinions
Chris Larkin told CNBC that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve making a cut in September has increased following the latest wage increase data. Hourly earnings have slowed compared to previous years, and employment is weakening. With the decline in inflation continuing, there is no reason for the Fed to avoid a rate cut.
FedWatch indicates that markets are giving a 47% chance for 2 rate cuts before the end of this year. Just last week, this rate was at 24%. So, while things are clearly changing on the macroeconomic front, we still haven’t seen the results on BTC price.
According to Farside Investors’ data, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw an inflow of $800 million in the last four trading days. Another interesting point is here. While a few hundred million dollars of sales shake the markets, $800 million flows into ETFs in 4 days, and BTC does not increase. In similar past periods, we saw days when the suppressed price increased much faster. Maybe history will repeat itself.
