Bitcoin (BTC) climbed back above the $69,000 mark in recent trading, reclaiming significant ground after a period of volatility. While holding above $68,000 is viewed positively, market observers caution that conviction will be hard to come by until BTC posts sustained closes above $72,000. On-chain experts warn that the latest moves from so-called “whales”—large holders of BTC—require extra vigilance from traders in the days ahead.
Whale Behavior Raises Red Flags
The ongoing rally in Bitcoin, now stretching past three months, has paradoxically fueled wave after wave of profit-taking. Despite surpassing $69,000, analysts underline that only a strong close above $72,000 would provide reassurance to market participants. Adding to the uncertainty, select altcoins have registered swift 5% jumps, while typical light weekend trading clouds the near-term market outlook.
On-chain analyst Darkfost highlights that whales whose unrealized profits have significantly diminished are becoming increasingly unpredictable for the broader market. Sharing a chart that tracks the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) index for addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC, Darkfost notes that NUPL serves as a straightforward gauge for paper gains and losses among investors. Elevated NUPL values suggest these whales are sitting on substantial unrealized profits, while low readings indicate underwater positions.
“Today, the NUPL for this whale group has slipped below 0.2—a threshold typically seen only when bear markets are well progressed, as represented by the yellow zone. This suggests these investors now hold almost zero unrealized profits.
Historically, during bear market bottoms, whales often move from no profit to holding unrealized losses, but we’re not there yet. It’s vital to watch closely, as pressure on these large players can trigger capitulation, dragging BTC and NUPL down further. We’re especially observing this among newer whales in recent days.
These whales are now realizing their losses, sometimes on a significant scale.”
Given current dynamics, market watchers argue that the main driver of selling pressure appears to be this new phase of whale capitulation. Maintaining vigilance is crucial, as these movements could influence short-term market sentiment and potentially spark additional volatility.
BTC Faces Technical Test Around $72,000
Turning to the short-term picture, analyst Columbus examined Bitcoin’s four-hour chart, noting a recent break of the prevailing trendline. He emphasized that a renewed uptrend could resume, provided that BTC manages to clear resistance near $72,000.
“Let’s see if Bitcoin can break above the 4-hour EMA50 and the $72,000 resistance to regain upward momentum!” Columbus commented.
For now, technical and on-chain signals both urge caution, with large holders’ recent selling activity underscoring a fragile mood in the market. Without a decisive breakout above $72,000, the current rally remains on uncertain footing. Meanwhile, sharp moves in altcoins and weekend trading conditions add another layer of unpredictability, suggesting that traders may need to brace for continued volatility in the coming days.
