Leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin is expected to recover in July after its disappointing performance in June. Analysts note that Bitcoin’s price dropped by about 7% last month. Historical data from Coinglass, which tracks Bitcoin’s monthly returns since 2013, shows that Bitcoin usually underperforms in June with an average small decline of 0.35%. Despite this, July has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin, often compensating for the June decline.
Bitcoin Gains Value in July
A crypto market analyst, Ali Martinez, highlighted that Bitcoin generally bounces back strongly in July after a June decline. According to Martinez, Bitcoin historically gains an average of 7.42% in July following a negative June. Supporting this view, Bitcoin has recorded at least an 8% gain in seven of the last eleven Julys, reinforcing the mid-year recovery pattern.
Another analyst known as Murad reiterated this thought to his 103,000 followers on social media. He noted that Bitcoin has consistently achieved a minimum of 28% gains in the first few weeks of July over the past six years. This historical trend has fueled optimism among Bitcoin investors hoping for the same performance this year.
Mt. Gox Could Change the Narrative
Several factors could make July more challenging for Bitcoin compared to previous years. Analysts have taken a cautious stance against significant Bitcoin sales by the German government and the upcoming repayments from the defunct Mt. Gox exchange. The Mt. Gox repayments, expected to start at the beginning of July, involve returning approximately $8.5 billion worth of Bitcoin to creditors. This event could potentially increase selling pressure in the market.
Despite these concerns, some analysts believe the impact of the Mt. Gox repayments might be less severe than expected. Only about $4 billion of the $8.5 billion is likely to enter the spot market. Accordingly, such a development could alleviate some of the downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.
Increase Expected for Bitcoin
Jonathan de Wet, the Chief Investment Officer of the digital asset trading firm ZeroCap, noted that Bitcoin has been trading steadily from below $60,000 to $65,000 despite various adversities. He expects Bitcoin to maintain this range but warns that the price could drop to the key support level around $57,000 due to the Mt. Gox repayments.
Historically, Bitcoin’s strongest monthly performance has occurred in November, with an average monthly gain of 46.81% since 2013. While July is generally favorable for Bitcoin, upcoming challenges could test this trend.
