Bitcoin posted notable gains on Monday, surging 3% to trade above $79,000 after several weeks of persistent losses. The bounce followed last week’s 3.2% decline and coincided with renewed optimism tied to geopolitical developments and crypto regulation in the United States.
Geopolitical signals lift risk assets
Former US President Donald Trump indicated prospects for an end to tensions between the United States and Iran. In a post on Truth Social, Trump remarked that “Iran wants to make a deal, quickly and badly,” and predicted oil prices would “drop like a rock” once hostilities ease. The announcement helped pressure oil prices lower and supported a risk-on move across the digital asset market.
Analysts noted that the prospect of lower oil prices could ease inflationary pressure, which in turn may create a more supportive environment for cryptocurrencies and broader risk assets.
Clarity Act moves closer to Senate vote
Regulatory momentum added to the day’s optimism as the Clarity Act, a key piece of US cryptocurrency legislation, appeared set for a Senate vote as early as Tuesday. The Clarity Act aims to provide comprehensive rules for the digital asset industry. Designed to clarify the legal status of cryptocurrencies and introduce new ethics guidelines, the bill has seen recent revisions to address concerns from both political parties.
Senator Cynthia Lummis, a Wyoming Republican, indicated the bill now includes more than 120 Democratic-backed amendments. Notably, Trump has agreed to new ethics requirements covering federal lawmakers, judges, and their spouses. The Treasury Secretary is also set to gain expanded authority to prevent illicit use of payment stablecoins.
The Clarity Act has previously stalled in the Senate due to insufficient support but the current version appears to have broader bipartisan backing.
Mini dictionary: Clarity Act, a proposed US law aiming to clarify regulatory treatment of cryptocurrencies with oversight provisions for digital asset markets.
Senator Lummis emphasized that after incorporating strict ethics provisions, negotiation space was exhausted, stating, “President Trump has now agreed to two historic ethics provisions, provisions these very members demanded. There’s nothing left to give.”
“President Trump has now agreed to two historic ethics provisions, provisions these very members demanded. There’s nothing left to give.”
Technical zone and market outlook
On the technical front, Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $77,430, a level widely followed as a key support marker by traders. After briefly closing below this level, Bitcoin’s return above it is seen as a bullish sign by market participants.
Prominent analyst Ted Pillows highlighted the heavy concentration of sell orders in the $80,000 to $83,000 range. He suggested that surpassing this zone could confirm a market bottom and trigger further upside for the current cycle.
“$BTC is about to enter a huge sell zone, with a lot of sell orders in the $80,000–$83,000 range. If Bitcoin breaks above this, another leg up could occur, and the cycle bottom will be confirmed.”
| Key Level | Status | Market Signal |
|---|---|---|
| $77,430 (50-week EMA) | Regained | Bullish support |
| $80,000–$83,000 | Sell zone | Resistance area |
Fed meeting and broader market context
Anticipation surrounds Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy decision. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike has climbed to 92.7%, up sharply from 59.4% a week ago, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. QCP Capital, a digital asset trading firm, remarked that the expectation of a rate hike is already priced in, and attention now shifts to any signals about future policy direction.
QCP Capital also cautioned that persistently high oil prices may keep inflation elevated, potentially limiting the Federal Reserve’s room to ease monetary conditions even if the economy slows.
Elsewhere, the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% as major tech stocks retreated following public commentary from AI leaders, including Dario Amodei of Anthropic, calling for a slower pace of AI development. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil remained above $100 per barrel, with Brent near $105.
