Bitcoin began the week on a positive note, rebounding above $64,000 after securing support near $62,300. The largest cryptocurrency recorded a price increase of more than 1% over the past 24 hours, holding steady despite continued broader market uncertainty.
Bitcoin holds support, boosted by increased trading volume
BTC’s climb above $64,000 came after the price retested key support at $62,300. Trading activity accelerated as Bitcoin approached this level, indicating that concentrated buy orders may have provided a cushion. The $62,300 zone proved critical, as buyers stepped in to defend against further declines.
While the market remains sensitive to central bank signals, broader sentiment turned cautiously optimistic as recent data eased concerns about aggressive monetary tightening.
US inflation data and monetary policy outlook
The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September declined sharply to 30%, compared to 76% a month ago. This change followed news that US inflation cooled to 3.4% in July, down from 3.5% in June. Softer inflation figures have reduced immediate policy pressures, even as inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target.
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AAPLDespite the moderation in price growth, three members of the Federal Open Market Committee opposed leaving rates unchanged at the last meeting. As a result, there remains some uncertainty around future rate hikes.
The prospect of prolonged restrictive policy continues to influence the appetite for risk assets such as Bitcoin. Higher interest rates can reduce demand for non-yielding, riskier investments.
Monthly data from SoSoValue showed that Bitcoin ETFs are positioned to achieve approximately $870 million in net inflows in August, which would mark the strongest monthly result since April and a significant increase from the previous month.
Last week, Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows of $350 million. On Monday, however, the ETFs absorbed $137 million in new inflows, suggesting that some institutional participants remain active while others stay on the sidelines.
If current patterns persist, institutional sentiment may be gradually improving, with ETF inflows potentially helping to stabilize prices and absorb selling pressure as market conditions evolve.
| Period | ETF Net Flows | Market Impact |
|---|---|---|
| July | ~$172 million | Weaker inflows |
| August (projected) | ~$870 million | Strongest since April |
| Last week | -$350 million (outflows) | Short-term caution |
| Monday | +$137 million (inflows) | Renewed institutional activity |
Whale accumulation and market support
Large Bitcoin holders, often referred to as “whales,” continued to acquire BTC during the recent consolidation phase. According to data from Santiment, wallets holding between 1 and 100,000 BTC collectively purchased a net 10,000 BTC over the past month.
Notably, the largest wallets in this group—those controlling between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC—accumulated approximately 30,000 BTC in just 17 days. Substantial buying by major holders tends to reduce the amount of Bitcoin available for trading, often strengthening support levels.
This sustained accumulation may contribute to Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $60,000 for the past month and a half, despite challenging macroeconomic conditions. However, analysts caution that whale activity alone does not guarantee an immediate rally, with technical resistance still looming.
Mini dictionary: Santiment, a blockchain analytics company that provides on-chain and social data to help investors track cryptocurrency market trends.
Bitcoin price outlook and key resistance levels
After two failed attempts to break above $66,000, Bitcoin remains in a consolidation range. Traders are watching the $66,000 barrier closely as the main upside level this week. On the downside, the $62,000 area has functioned as short-term support but is not yet seen as a firm price floor.
Momentum indicators reflect a neutral-to-cautious stance. The Relative Strength Index has slipped below its signal line, hinting at weaker buying pressure. A drop below the 40 mark could increase the risk of Bitcoin revisiting the psychologically significant $60,000 threshold.
A sustained daily close above $66,000 would support a stronger bullish scenario, potentially paving the way for a move towards the 200-day Exponential Moving Average near $72,000. A breakout above this level, especially if confirmed by an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, could see BTC challenge the $75,000 region.
For now, Bitcoin is expected to trade within a range, remaining sensitive to shifts in inflation and interest rate expectations.
Until Bitcoin closes above $66,000, the cryptocurrency may remain range-bound and responsive to changing macro conditions, especially shifts in interest rate outlooks.
