Bitcoin (BTC) 
$76,351 closed yet another week in the green, driven by robust institutional demand. However, on-chain data suggests a cooling effect behind the scenes. The decline in active wallets indicates short-term investors are cashing in profits and stepping back, while a slight drop in hashrate suggests miners are recalibrating their positions without undermining network security. While the price manages to stay above $107,000, momentum is waning, and experts foresee the distribution phase beginning, with the peak anticipated in the fall.
Implications of Active Wallet Decline
On a weekly basis, active wallets dropped by 6.5% to 8.06 million. This reduction reflects a trend among small-scale investors to pocket profits from the previous upward surge. Historically, similar patterns have heralded periods of consolidation, allowing prices to be bolstered temporarily by institutional entries.
During the same period, while prices rose by 3.5% to reach $107,839, large portfolio flows remained resilient, even as individual investors weakened. With the total market capitalization surpassing $2.14 trillion, Bitcoin maintains a market dominance of around 63%. Despite maintaining momentum, there’s a slight loss of strength, as RSI and MACD indicators plateau and volatility narrows.
A 1.4% dip on the hashrate side is attributed to routine maintenance and equipment relocations. The network’s security index remains well above critical thresholds, alleviating long-term investor concerns. Miners still enjoy positive profitability margins, and despite block halving, selling pressure remains low.
Market Cycle Points to Autumn
MRPI and VDD ratios continue to stay below the thresholds that triggered the peaks of 2013, 2017, and 2021. Analyst Axel Adler Jr.’s “Bitcoin Peak Signal” indicator is not yet in the red zone, hinting that the true peak may be farther off. According to historical fractal models, the most likely timetable for the cycle’s final excitement is the last quarter of the year.
In the short term, $107,000 is a critical level. If this support is maintained, the bull trend might renew. However, a candle close below $107,000 could prompt a correction to the 95,000 – 100,000 range, potentially enabling long-term accounts to resume accumulation.
Alongside these dynamics, fund flow reports reveal ongoing spot ETF inflows and a persistent buy-and-hold strategy among institutional portfolios. Meanwhile, on the retail side, a decline in Google search volumes and social media engagements signals a market breathing pause, with investor sentiment shifting from exuberance to cautious optimism.
