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An analyst from Truflation remarked that despite sticky US inflation and the decreasing likelihood of a Fed rate cut in the first half of the year, risk assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) have remained resilient. Expectations on Polymarket also suggest that BTC could reach an all-time high this year.
Risk Assets Show Strength Amid March Rate Cut Expectations
Following higher-than-expected US inflation data, which dampened hopes for a Fed rate cut in the first quarter, Bitcoin experienced moderate losses. The US January inflation data revealed price increases in health and public services due to a tight labor market, while showing a decrease in prices for some products such as food, alcoholic beverages, clothing, and durable household goods as consumers returned to normal purchasing behavior after the holiday season.
Bitcoin’s initial reaction to the unexpected inflation data was a drop from $50,000 to around $48,800, but it climbed back above the $49,500 level during today’s Asian trading session.
Oliver Rust, a product manager at Truflation, pointed out that despite a slight pullback in Bitcoin following the US consumer price index data, and contrary to most market participants’ expectations, risk assets behaved as if a rate cut in March was still on the table. Rust emphasized that the market has acknowledged the potential for higher interest rates to persist for an extended period.
Rust continued, stating that the rate cut could be off the table until May or June unless economic data softens. However, he underlined that markets may have already adapted to the concept of a longer period of higher interest rates and adjusted to this new reality.
Polymarket Predicts a 59% Chance of Bitcoin Hitting a Record High This Year
Prediction contracts on Polymarket indicate a 59% probability of Bitcoin reaching an all-time high in 2024, while another contract suggests a 66% chance that the largest cryptocurrency will hit a new peak before Ethereum (ETH).
