Following the Bitcoin halving event in 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) 
$76,252 has seen a significant price surge, surpassing $100,000 and reaching new heights above $109,000. However, during this period, altcoins have not been able to match Bitcoin’s rapid rise, similar to previous bull markets. With a few exceptions like Solana 
$83 (SOL) and BNB, most coins have underperformed, leading to a staggering $234 billion drop in market capitalization for the altcoins that have lagged behind during Bitcoin’s price rally, according to Glassnode data.
Altcoin Dominance Hits a Four-Year Low
The total dominance of the altcoin market has been on a downward trend since the beginning of 2024, reaching levels not seen since June 2023, marking four-year lows. While memecoin projects continue to attract significant liquidity from the market, major altcoin projects are facing challenges.
A similar situation occurred in 2021 when Bitcoin traded between 50% and 100% above its previous peak, leading to a robust recovery in the altcoin market. However, in the current cycle, altcoins are showing significantly weaker performance compared to historical trends. While expectations for 2025 are high, the onset of an altcoin season may be delayed this year.
Will Altcoin Season Extend to 2026?
Excluding Ethereum (ETH) 
$2,276, the total market value of cryptocurrencies has been severely impacted by recent liquidations, attempting to stabilize around $850 billion. This level is currently viewed as a critical support point. In contrast, the total market value including Ethereum appears weaker, with altcoins not yet signaling a strong recovery.
Popular analyst Moustache asserts that the altcoin season is not canceled. He believes that the total market value, excluding BTC, continues to hold above an important trend line. If this support is maintained, Moustache predicts that altcoins will recover and potentially witness an even stronger rise than during the 2014-2018 altcoin season.
He further emphasized that an exit from the descending broadening wedge formation could trigger significant upward movement in the market.
