Bitcoin started 2024 strong with an increase of over 40% since the beginning of the year. This rise is supported by several positive fundamental factors, including the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the US and the halving event that reduced the amount of Bitcoin awarded to miners by 50%.
What to Expect on the Bitcoin Front?
Unlike previous cycles, Bitcoin’s price reached new all-time highs before the halving event, leading many analysts to predict a super cycle within the current halving year. More than 123 days have passed since the Bitcoin halving event, and the Bitcoin price has yet to surpass its all-time high before the halving.
Data from Coinglass reveals that Bitcoin has always provided positive returns in the fourth quarter of halving years, with gains of 58% and 168% in 2016 and 2020, respectively. Moreover, Bitcoin has provided positive returns in eight out of eleven years between 2013 and 2023, with an average gain of 88%.
If history repeats itself, Bitcoin’s likelihood of recovery in the fourth quarter of 2024 stands out at 73%. CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju analyzed Bitcoin’s price movement during the 2020 halving event and found that the recovery began in the fourth quarter:
“In the last Bitcoin halving cycle, the bull recovery started in the fourth quarter. Whales will not allow the fourth quarter to be boring with flat annual performance.”
According to Young Ju, Bitcoin’s price is in an accumulation phase, indicating a potential parabolic uptrend as it enters the last quarter of 2024.
Details on the Subject
Data from TradingView shows that Bitcoin’s price movement has formed a series of higher lows on the daily chart but has remained below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) for the past seven days.
IntoTheBlock’s In/Out of the Money Around Price (IOMAP) model reveals that Bitcoin faces relatively strong resistance on its recovery path compared to its downside support. The 200-day EMA average at $59,423 is close to the $59,500 to $61,300 price range, where approximately 1.51 million addresses previously purchased about 817,770 Bitcoin.
This indicates that high demand-side liquidity is necessary to push Bitcoin’s price beyond the 200-day EMA average and subsequently above the resistance provided by the 50 and 100-day EMA averages at $61,383 and $62,323, respectively. Analyst Mark Cullen suggests that if this does not occur, Bitcoin’s price could drop to the $57,500 level or even revisit the $54,500 level.
