On-chain data suggests that Bitcoin may be forming a price floor between $60,000 and $70,000, according to the latest analysis. Around 20 percent of the BTC supply is now concentrated in this range, analysts report, indicating that these levels have become a significant cost basis for many investors.
Supply clusters at the $60,000-$70,000 range
The findings are based on a metric known as URPD, or “unspent realized price distribution.” This technical indicator tracks the price levels at which Bitcoin last changed hands on the blockchain, helping reveal where and at what prices investors are congregating.
Glossary: URPD is an on-chain metric showing the price distribution where Bitcoin supply most recently moved. Analysts use it to identify investor cost clusters and potential support or resistance regions.
Analyst Frank Fetter, referencing data from Checkonchain, noted that as of Tuesday, approximately one-fifth of all Bitcoin is now positioned between $60,000 and $70,000. This means a large cohort of holders acquired their BTC within this price band, solidifying its importance in the current market structure.
Frank Fetter highlighted that dense cost regions like this often play a key role in forming meaningful bottoms in the market, describing the recent accumulation as noteworthy in this respect.
As more investors buy at similar price levels, the corresponding range often acts as a strong support area. The recent correction phase saw higher-cost holders selling, while new buyers stepped in to absorb supply around $60,000.
Transition from weak to strong hands
Market observers interpret this trend as a redistribution phase. During this period, short-term and panic-driven sellers exit, while more committed investors steadily accumulate positions. On-chain analyst Darkfost, affiliated with CryptoQuant, emphasized that the recent developments reflect one of the largest transfers of BTC from weaker to stronger hands in recent memory.
Supply in profit mirrors previous cycle lows
Another notable metric is the proportion of the circulating Bitcoin supply currently in profit. Analyst DurdenBTC observed that this figure has retreated to a so-called “capitulation zone.” This metric measures the percentage of total BTC supply still held at a profit. Heavy price drops push more coins toward breakeven or loss, providing insight into cycle bottoms.
According to the data, this capitulation zone has only occurred four times in recent cycles: near $3,200 in 2019, around $5,000 in 2020, at $16,000 in 2023, and now close to $59,000. In each previous case, the market was near or at a significant Bitcoin bottom.
Bears eye risk of $53,500 support
Despite these encouraging on-chain signals, technical indicators suggest traders remain cautious. On daily charts, Bitcoin is attempting to recover within a small bear flag structure following the sharp drop below $60,000. This pattern can imply the potential for another downward move after a short-lived rebound following strong selling.
Should the price be rejected at the upper trendline of this formation, a break below $60,000 could trigger further declines, with $53,500 as a likely target. Conversely, a daily close above the 20-day exponential moving average at $66,420 would temper bearish sentiment. If that resistance is cleared, the next technical target is the 50-day EMA around $70,250.
