Bitcoin moved above $65,000 on Tuesday, marking its highest level since mid-August and signaling renewed optimism in the cryptocurrency market. This price move aligned with a sustained rebound in US stocks and declining geopolitical tensions related to the Strait of Hormuz following fresh comments from US President Donald Trump.
Market rebound and easing geopolitical risk
President Trump stated on Truth Social that the Strait of Hormuz remains “open and operating,” confirming that all water mines have been cleared or destroyed. The news contributed to gains in US equity markets, with the S&P 500 rebounding from 7,696, its lowest level since early August, and supporting a broader rally in assets perceived as higher risk.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices stabilized, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipping 1% to about $84 per barrel. In fixed income markets, yields on 30-year US Treasury bonds increased to 5.34%, reaching the highest level since January 2007.
Geoff Yu, a strategist at BNY Mellon, commented that investors are seeking greater compensation due to rising inflationary pressures and escalating government debt levels, factors that have driven up yields.
ETF inflows highlight renewed institutional interest
On Monday, US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted nearly $300 million in net inflows, marking the largest daily total since May 5. This resurgence in ETF activity points to a return of institutional demand for Bitcoin exposure.
VanEck, a well-known asset management firm specializing in both traditional and digital asset investment products, released a fresh research report that analyzed current market conditions through its proprietary “Bitcoin Capitulation Check” framework. Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush and Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel revealed that 8 out of 12 capitulation indicators are now active.
All 12 indicators have reached their capitulation benchmarks at different periods over the last three months, with VanEck suggesting that this pattern could mean Bitcoin is entering or already in a phase of accumulation.
Mini dictionary: VanEck is a global investment management firm offering both traditional and digital asset products, including ETFs that provide exposure to various markets and sectors.
VanEck analysts highlighted that “with 8 out of 12 capitulation indicators active, current conditions suggest Bitcoin may be close to or within an accumulation phase.”
Technical outlook: Key levels and patterns
Technical analyst Aksel Kibar identified the possibility of an inverse head-and-shoulders chart formation, suggesting the neckline around $62,300. If this formation completes successfully, Kibar sees a potential upside target at $76,000. However, if the pattern fails, he notes $53,000 as a possible downside objective.
Aksel Kibar noted that if Bitcoin is to rebound, “it has to come from here,” with the next important resistance lying at $76,000 should the bullish setup continue.
Another market commentator, Ted Pillows, wrote on X that Bitcoin appears close to a breakout, and a four-hour candle close above $65,000 could accelerate momentum toward $68,000.
Currently, Bitcoin trades about 48% below its record high of $126,300 set in October 2025. The 50-month exponential moving average, now located just above $65,800, acts as immediate resistance and remains a crucial technical level to monitor.
| Metric | Current Value | Reference Point |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Current Price | $65,000 | Highest since mid-August |
| All-Time High | $126,300 | October 2025 |
| 50-Month EMA | $65,827 | Immediate resistance |
| Key Upside Target | $76,000 | Technical analysis |
| Possible Downside Target | $53,000 | Technical analysis |
VanEck’s review of past market cycles found that Bitcoin’s previous three bear markets averaged 12.7 months from peak to trough. The current correction sits at roughly 11 months following last year’s record high.
Long-term Bitcoin holders have reduced positions by 356,000 BTC in the last 30 days, bringing their share of the total supply under 60% for the first time in months. Currently, around 11.84 million BTC remains classified as long-term holdings.
