Bitcoin recently soared to over $95,000, marking its highest level in two months and reigniting significant optimism in the cryptocurrency market. However, on-chain data and exchange-based indicators suggest that this surge is primarily supported by investors outside the United States. Despite the impressive price increase, the emerging picture of demand sources raises questions about the sustainability of this rally.
Strong Breakout in Charts, Yet Uneven Demand Balance
After being stuck in the $92,000–$93,000 range for several days, Bitcoin shot up to the $95,800–$96,000 region with a sharp volume increase. This movement represents a vertical breakout within a short period. Despite limited pullbacks near the peak, Bitcoin’s attempts to hold above $94,500 indicate that buyers have not yet exited the market.
Technically, the formation of higher lows since mid-January and subsequent momentum-driven increases suggest that the short-term trend remains upward. However, this technical strengthening does not fully align with U.S.-based spot demand indicators. According to CryptoQuant, the Coinbase Premium Index has been mostly negative since November, implying that U.S. investors are either cautious or have been selling during the price rise.
In contrast, a noticeable increase in trading volumes on global exchanges like Binance highlights that the surge is mainly driven by liquidity outside the U.S. This divergence suggests that while the price appears strong, the demand structure might be one-sided.
Why Are U.S. Investors Cautious?
The negative Coinbase Premium suggests that U.S.-based investors are either adopting a wait-and-see stance or limiting their appetite due to regulatory uncertainties. The delay in the legislative process of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act in the Senate is seen as a primary reason for this caution. Investors are reluctant to take aggressive positions without clear regulatory rules.
Meanwhile, another notable development in the market is the filing for a $250 million IPO on Nasdaq by a SPAC linked to Kraken. This news indicates that the institutional crypto infrastructure in the U.S. still has growth potential. However, despite such positive developments, the weak spot demand implies that a strong U.S.-originated buying wave may be challenging without regulatory clarity.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s performance above $95,000 is technically impressive and shows that global liquidity is still entering the market. However, as long as U.S. investors’ participation remains limited, the risk of this rally being fragile is high. A return of the Coinbase Premium to positive would be a strong signal for a healthier and more balanced rally structure. Otherwise, significant fluctuations may occur when global momentum weakens.
