Analysts at JPMorgan anticipate that Bitcoin 
$76,467 will gain more value than gold by the second half of 2025, driven by institutional demand and US state support. Recent analyses reveal that the dynamics between gold and Bitcoin in investment portfolios have significantly changed. This shift is influenced by trust in financial instruments and new institutional initiatives.
Gold vs. Bitcoin Dynamics
Under the leadership of Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, analysts highlight a trend known as “debasement trade” as investors seek protection from currency devaluation. This trend sees investors choosing between gold and Bitcoin, with a recent shift favoring Bitcoin. From mid-February to mid-April, while gold gained value, Bitcoin has overtaken gold in the past three weeks.
Since the beginning of the year, both gold and Bitcoin have remained relatively weak in performance, although uncertainties have led to significant gold gains. However, according to the institution’s predictions, developments specific to Bitcoin could shift this balance in its favor in the second half of the year.
From the end of April, gold’s price decreased by approximately 8%, while Bitcoin saw an 18% increase. A notable shift in investment flows is occurring; withdrawals from gold-based exchange-traded funds are accelerating, with increasing interest and investments in Bitcoin. Futures markets reflect a similar trend, with declining gold contracts and significant increases in Bitcoin transactions.
Bitcoin’s rise is not only due to gold’s weakness but also to crypto-specific developments. Companies like Strategy and Metaplanet are adding significant amounts of Bitcoin to their portfolios. Strategy stands out with a plan to raise $84 billion for Bitcoin purchases by 2027, having already achieved 32% of this target.
US States Embrace Bitcoin
Several US states have also begun warming up to Bitcoin. New Hampshire, for instance, has allowed holding up to 5% of its reserves in Bitcoin, while Arizona has decided to establish a Bitcoin reserve without raising taxes this year.
Metaplanet showed record performance in the first quarter of 2025, increasing its Bitcoin holdings to 6,796 BTC. Since the year’s start, over 5,000 BTC have been added to the company’s reserves. Despite a brief decline in March, there was a marked value increase in the BTC holdings as of May 12. Following the switch to Bitcoin standards, Metaplanet’s net asset value increased around 103 times, and market value surged approximately 138 times. Given examples like these among public companies, it is plausible to see over 600 Metaplanet and Strategy-style companies emerging, contributing a combined $6 billion net inflow.
Institutional demand and regulatory changes from various US states are boosting both individual and institutional interest in Bitcoin. Investment flows are progressing in sync with market performance and changes in the regulatory environment, as emphasized by experts and industry representatives.
It is anticipated that in the second half of 2025, Bitcoin may reach a strong market position due to new institutional investments and favorable regulatory developments in US states. There is a noted short-term potential for Bitcoin to gain higher value compared to gold. Market trends, company investments, and changes in state policies continue to be key determinants in the digital asset market. Investors are advised to monitor these developments closely and reassess their portfolio allocations accordingly.
