Bitcoin climbed to $69,192 on April 6, rebounding around 4% from its recent lows. This move marked the third upward attempt within just a week to rise from the same technical pattern detected on the 8-hour chart. Each rally so far has concluded before breaching the resistance zone, raising questions about whether the latest push can break out or will mirror previous failed attempts.
Recent rallies struggle with a stubborn ceiling
Over the past week, Bitcoin has demonstrated a recurring bullish divergence on the 8-hour time frame. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), often used to gauge momentum, repeatedly made higher lows even as Bitcoin’s price sank lower. This classic signal is typically associated with waning sell pressure and the potential for a reversal.
The first instance of this divergence wrapped up on March 31 and resulted in a 4.83% uptick before losing steam. The second formed on April 3, but the bounce yielded a more modest 1.47% gain. Most recently, the third divergence appeared on April 5, helping Bitcoin recover by 4.24% to $69,192.
A common thread links these attempts: none have managed to close convincingly above $69,182 on the 8-hour chart. This level has consistently acted as strong resistance, keeping the price contained despite multiple bullish technical signals.
Bitcoin is once again challenging this resistance, with the outcome likely shaped less by indicators and more by the underlying market dynamics, including who continues to buy or sell at these key thresholds.
On-chain conviction fades among whales and long-term holders
Two critical on-chain datasets signal why the recent technical bounces have faltered. The population of whale wallets, or holdings with at least 1,000 BTC, peaked around 1,281 in mid-March. Since then, that figure has steadily declined to 1,266 by April 5, implying that substantial market players have recently reduced their positions instead of accumulating.
This decline gathered pace after March 29, aligning with the period when the bullish divergences took shape on the chart.
Additionally, the Long-Term Holder Net Position Change—tracking whether seasoned investors are adding to or trimming their stacks—peaked at 163,262 BTC on March 22, but fell by almost half to 87,038 BTC by April 5. Although long-term holders are not exiting rapidly, these numbers indicate a notable drop in their conviction.
Supply distribution data further clarifies the current resistance. The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows that 1.7% of all Bitcoin moved at prices near $69,422, forming a notable supply cluster. This cluster creates a zone where many holders may be inclined to sell at break-even levels, increasing selling pressure around this range.
If Bitcoin clears this supply wall, concentrations thin out up to about $84,000, suggesting decreased resistance above the immediate zone. However, the lack of strong whale and long-term holder support makes overcoming the current level more challenging.
Key levels shape Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory
Technical analysis points to $69,920 as a pivotal level on the 8-hour chart. A close above this barrier would suggest the 1.7% supply cluster did not sell into the current rally, breaking a pattern set by previous failed moves.
Beyond $69,920, the next potential target lies at $71,956, which would imply a breakout from the tight range that has persisted since late March.
On the downside, $68,660 has emerged as first support, followed by $66,624, a zone with several recent rebounds. Should Bitcoin fall below this level, the next significant reference would be $63,329, potentially indicating a deeper correction.
If an 8-hour close is achieved above $69,920, it could distinguish this bounce from the two earlier ones. However, a retreat below $66,624 would highlight ongoing weakness among major holders and pressure Bitcoin toward lower ranges.
