Bitcoin (BTC) has recovered slightly from Monday’s decline and is now trading near $74,700. This minor rebound comes as the cryptocurrency struggles to move above key resistance levels, with subdued institutional interest hindering its potential for a stronger comeback.
Investors focus on US CPI data and Fed policy
Market participants are now turning their attention to the October US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which is anticipated to bring fresh volatility across the financial sector. The CPI figures arrive just days after stronger-than-expected US employment data, which bolstered expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.
Last week’s robust Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) results indicated that the US labor market remains solid, providing the Fed with more room to consider raising interest rates. Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool show traders now see over an 80% probability of a rate hike at the December meeting.
A CPI reading above market forecasts could reinforce expectations for further interest rate increases, likely adding renewed selling pressure on cryptocurrencies. In contrast, softer inflation numbers may ease investor concerns regarding additional rate hikes and possibly encourage more risk appetite.
Broader market sentiment is also shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, particularly concerning the ongoing US-Iran conflict. US President Donald Trump has recently expressed hope about progress toward de-escalation, indicating that the situation may be nearing an end and further military action seems unlikely. However, Iranian authorities, including Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, have disputed these claims, insisting that the resolution depends on Washington meeting Tehran’s seven conditions.
Mini dictionary: CME Group’s FedWatch Tool – An industry-standard online platform that provides real-time market expectations and probabilities for changes in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, based on futures trading data.
ETF outflows highlight weak institutional demand
Institutional appetite for Bitcoin remains subdued, with another significant round of US spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) withdrawals recorded on Monday. Data from SoSoValue show that spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced approximately $201.08 million in net outflows, extending the pattern seen in recent weeks.
The previous week saw $1.28 billion withdrawn from these products, the highest level since late June. Such continued outflows point to persistent caution among institutional investors amid ongoing economic uncertainty and weakening technical signals for Bitcoin.
| Date | ETF Net Outflows |
|---|---|
| This Monday | $201.08 million |
| Previous Week (Total) | $1.28 billion |
While institutional ETF investors pull back, corporate demand continues. Michael Saylor, chairman of business intelligence firm Strategy, has announced the acquisition of another 1,036 BTC, bringing the company’s total Bitcoin holdings to 850,364 BTC.
Mini dictionary: Strategy – A US-based business intelligence and analytics firm best known for being a major public corporate investor in Bitcoin, led by executive chairman Michael Saylor.
Michael Saylor’s firm extended its long-standing accumulation strategy by purchasing 1,036 more BTC, highlighting ongoing corporate demand while ETF outflows continue.
Technical signals point to $70,000 support
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains under pressure, currently trading below important Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). On Tuesday, BTC stood near $74,700, with sellers still dominating after last week’s drop below key support levels.
BTC is positioned below its 200-day EMA at $76,444, with higher resistance at the 100-day EMA ($77,574) and 50-day EMA ($79,141). The next significant horizontal resistance is observed around $85,000.
| Support/Resistance Level | Price |
|---|---|
| Major Support | $70,000 |
| 200-day EMA (Resistance) | $76,444 |
| 100-day EMA (Resistance) | $77,574 |
| 50-day EMA (Resistance) | $79,141 |
| Horizontal Resistance | $85,000 |
Momentum indicators reinforce the negative outlook. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits close to 36, signaling that Bitcoin is nearing oversold territory and reflecting weak buying momentum. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in negative territory, pointing to continued downward momentum.
If selling pressure persists, Bitcoin could test the psychological $70,000 support level. A decisive move below this threshold would further undermine the technical landscape and potentially open the door for additional losses.
As long as BTC trades beneath the 200-day EMA of $76,444, the short-term trend is considered bearish, with $70,000 remaining the crucial level to watch. The impending CPI report could prove pivotal in shaping whether Bitcoin manages to stabilize or extends its correction further.
Market focus has shifted to the October US CPI data, which could play a critical role in determining the short-term trajectory of $BTC as it hovers near $74,700 and faces sustained selling pressure from institutional investors.
