Bitcoin is currently priced close to $65,000, with key valuation indicators showing it remains under its historical average. The latest MVRV Z-Score, a commonly used on-chain metric, stands at 0.42, considerably below the long-term average of 1.7.
Market value below historical levels
The MVRV Z-Score measures how Bitcoin’s current market value compares to the aggregate value of coins based on their most recent movement. This indicator helps market participants determine whether Bitcoin is overvalued, fairly valued, or undervalued compared to past cycles.
Over the last month, the MVRV Z-Score has remained under the 1.7 level. On June 30, the metric fell to 0.185, representing the lowest point in the current cycle before recovering partially as Bitcoin’s price rebounded.
Bitcoin’s price has fluctuated between $64,000 and $66,000 after dropping about 15% over the preceding three months. The restricted price range suggests that market participants are exercising caution ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
CryptoQuant, a leading crypto analytics platform, reported that investors realized net losses for most of the past month. During June, these losses totaled around $8.5 billion, with nearly $3 billion in net realized losses recorded in mid-July.
| Date/Period | Bitcoin Price | MVRV Z-Score | Net Realized Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | $60,000 (approx.) | 0.185 (cycle low) | ($8.5 billion) in June |
| Mid-July | $65,000–$66,000 | 0.42 | ($3 billion) in losses |
| Recent days | $65,000 | 0.42 | $239 million gain (daily) |
Over the last week, the pattern shifted. Realized profits outpaced losses, with daily profit levels reaching between $400 million and $500 million. The latest data showed a net realized profit of $239 million, signaling some relief from recent selling pressure.
No sign of capitulation
During past market cycles, Bitcoin’s bottom often coincided with the MVRV Z-Score dropping below zero. In late 2022, the indicator remained negative for several weeks as Bitcoin traded near $16,000 to $17,000, marking a period of investor capitulation.
Currently, Bitcoin’s valuation has not reached that previous extreme. Selling pressure appears to be easing, but the most severe phase of fear-driven capitulation has not materialized in the current cycle.
Recent trends show that while holders are reducing sales, the overall market has yet to experience the same level of panic seen at previous cycle lows.
Crazzyblockk, an analyst specializing in on-chain data, suggested that the market might be experiencing a gradual reset instead of the full-scale capitulation seen in previous cycles. Since reaching $60,000 in late June, Bitcoin has rebounded by about 6%.
A sustained rise in the MVRV Z-Score toward the 1.7 level would indicate a return to stronger valuation territory. This move could encourage a broader price recovery if buyer demand continues to improve.
On the other hand, a renewed decline in the MVRV Z-Score below 0.185 could signal rising stress and potentially lead to additional losses before Bitcoin stabilizes.
Mini dictionary: MVRV Z-Score, short for Market Value to Realized Value Z-Score, is a metric used to assess whether an asset like Bitcoin is fairly valued or over/undervalued relative to its historical average. It compares the difference between Bitcoin’s current market value and its “realized” value, standardized by its historical deviation.
