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Following every challenging bear market, Bitcoin has made strong rallies and reached historic peaks. It tends to do so today as well. After reaching $64,000 this week, close to its previous peak of $69,000, the price fell back to $62,000. Investor appetite is still strong, and the ongoing closures above $60,000 are promising. So, what is the dollar target for the 2024-2025 bull season?
Bitcoin Bull Run Projections
Caleb Franzen, founder of Cubic Analytics, said today that Bitcoin, the largest and oldest cryptocurrency by market value, could gain up to 260% from current levels in this cycle. Historical data supports this, and numerous experts give the historical peak a deadline until the end of the first quarter of 2025 following the halving.
The analyst’s prediction is bolstered by a rare signal from the Williams%R Oscillator. Bitcoin gained more than 43% in value in February alone, but the signal indicating the long-term price target suggests more is to come. Franzen, who analyzed the Williams%R Oscillator over three-year periods, warned about the signal that has given alerts four times to date.
“Bitcoin has made its highest monthly close since October 2021, but the situation is even better and indicates further rises. The 36-month Williams%R Oscillator has closed above the overbought level for the 4th time in history.”
Bitcoin Historical Cycles
This oscillator is used to measure trend strength. Franzen said that this tool was also an important sign that Bitcoin began to recover from the lowest levels of the 2022 bear market. Historically, when the 36-month Williams%R Oscillator reached the overbought area above -20, it encouraged the bulls in 2013, 2016, and 2020.
“I always say this and will continue to repeat: overbought signals are incredibly bullish and should be seen as momentum signals, not weakening signals.”
If we were to make a calculation based on previous cycles for the 2024-2025 bull, the potential target for Bitcoin points to $180,000. However, Franzen also acknowledged that even these extraordinary events should not be seen as a guarantee of future performance.
“The same analysis I shared for the 12M and 24M Williams%R signals worked perfectly; however, this study guarantees nothing. It only tells us how market participants behaved in the past when investor behavior was statistically similar. This study clearly indicates a rise, but we should see it as supporting the likelihood of a rise rather than outright bullishness from a binary perspective.”
