Although Ethereum has managed to hold above the $2,200 mark, there appears to be little sign of bullish enthusiasm among other altcoins, with low trading volumes painting a picture of caution across the crypto sector. Meanwhile, ahead of key diplomatic talks set for tomorrow, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament has stipulated a ceasefire in Lebanon and the unfreezing of Iran’s blocked assets as preconditions for progress. As global leaders brace for shifting geopolitical currents and inflation ticks up by 1% today, crypto watchers are left wondering whether Bitcoin has reached the bottom of its market cycle.
Bear market analysis suggests further decline possible
Bear markets for crypto assets typically come to a close when sellers are exhausted and the fundamental triggers for long-term declines have reversed. Yet, according to a recent report from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s journey through its current cycle may be far from over. Using three separate on-chain indicators, analysts caution investors against getting swept up in the excitement around prices nearing the $73,000 level, arguing that the market’s structural signals do not confirm a true bottom.
On-chain signals contradict hopes of a quick rebound
One key measure is the profitability of long-term Bitcoin holders—often called “whales”—who have held their assets for more than 155 days. Historically, a genuine bear market bottom only forms once these investors’ gains are completely eroded. Right now, their holdings remain squarely in profit, meaning the required capitulation has not taken place.
Another important metric, the MVRV Z-Score—a tool commonly used by analysts to judge whether Bitcoin is over- or undervalued—remains above zero. Historically, market bottoms have always coincided with a negative score. Although the broader market has cooled significantly and suffered heavy losses already, the absence of this signal means analysts are hesitant to call the bottom just yet.
A third indicator involves the so-called Cost Basis Crossover: a technical “death cross” occurs when the realized price for short-term holders (STH) falls below that of long-term holders (LTH). Such a crossover has historically indicated surrender among investors, a telltale sign of a nearing bottom. At present, this crossover has not occurred, suggesting the market cycle has further to run.
Analyst predictions on timing of the next cycle bottom
According to CryptoQuant analyst Sunny Mom, current trends imply that the cost basis lines for short-term and long-term holders are poised to cross sometime in the fourth quarter of 2026. This would allow just enough time for the MVRV Z-Score to dip into negative territory and for whales to complete their final wave of panic selling, both historic precursors to a cycle bottom. The expectation is for Bitcoin to find its floor between $55,000 and $60,000, coinciding with these key technical confirmations.
Outlining what might follow, the analyst elaborated on the expected bull cycle:
“After hitting the bottom in late 2026, we anticipate a two-year accumulation phase. With the upcoming Halving due in April 2028, Bitcoin’s price tends to peak 12–18 months after this event, making the end of 2029 a plausible window for a parabolic bull run.”
If these projections prove accurate, investors who expect dramatic gains within just one or two years from now may be setting themselves up for disappointment.
