At the beginning of the week, Bitcoin 
$76,467 reached a record high, but following a correction triggered on October 7th, it fell below $120,000. Currently, the price hovers around $121,000, approximately 4% lower than the all-time high of $126,220 recorded on Monday. Justin d’Anethan, Director of Analysis and Business Partnerships at Arctic Digital, emphasized that the withdrawal is not unusual and highlighted that long-term supply remains intact despite short-term profit-taking and leverage liquidations. Vincent Liu, CIO of Kronos Research, noted that sentiment remains mixed yet strong, with long-term wallets continuing to accumulate.
Bitcoin’s Price Dynamics
The high demand for spot cryptocurrency ETFs, especially Bitcoin ETFs, combined with the lowest BTC supply in exchanges in the last six years, highlights a squeeze on the supply side. d’Anethan underscored that leverage levels are limited while spot interest remains strong. He suggested that if the sidelined liquidity comes back into play, a new record attempt could be made. Min Jung from Presto Research indicated that although a distinct narrative is absent in headlines, on-chain Blockchain data confirms an accumulation phase.
The macro outlook is emerging as a principal factor influencing pricing. A stronger dollar, persistent yields, and uncertainty regarding the Fed’s interest rate path dampen risk appetite. Historically, a prolonged partial government shutdown in the U.S. has bolstered hedge assets like gold and Bitcoin. CME FedWatch data currently prices a 94.6% chance of a rate cut decision at the month-end FOMC meeting. Softer inflation data or a dovish stance could serve as a catalyst for new records in Bitcoin.
“Uptober” Narrative Holds Strong
Market structure supports a positive scenario for October. Historical data indicates Bitcoin rises by an average of 22% and Ethereum 
$2,266 approximately 5% in October, lending credence to the “Uptober” narrative. According to Liu, accumulation continues, though volatility has not been removed from the equation. Political news flow and data sets will determine the short-term direction.
d’Anethan suggested October projections remain optimistic, although the pace of the rise may be more moderate than investors’ expectations. If the U.S. sees softening inflation or a clear signal of a rate cut, the likelihood of an upward breakout increases. Even in the opposite scenario, low leverage, strong spot demand, and the presence of sidelined funds continue to set the stage for new peaks.
