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The next move for Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market value, is eagerly anticipated. However, technical analysis from alternative asset management firm Valkyrie Investments points towards a further decline.
Valkyrie Investments Expects Bitcoin to Fall as Much as $24K
Bitcoin has lost 10% of its value this month due to the hawkish stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve, recovery of the U.S. dollar index (DXY), and ongoing uncertainty over the U.S. debt ceiling. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced around $26,200.
Valkyrie Investments suggests that Bitcoin may face another dip towards $24,000 due to a downward shift in the daily chart’s Ichimoku Cloud indicator, a gauge of momentum.
The Ichimoku Cloud, developed by Japanese journalist Goichi Hosada in the late 1960s, comprises five lines: the Leading Span A, Leading Span B, Conversion Line or Tenkan-Sen (T), Base Line or Kijun-Sen (K), and a lagging closing price line. The difference between Leading Span A and B forms the cloud, which is used to determine broader price trends. The intersection points between the Tenkan-Sen, a nine-day price midpoint, and Kijun-Sen, a 26-day midpoint, are used to determine short-term trading signals.
As seen in the Bitcoin chart below, the Ichimoku Cloud appears green, indicating a constructive overall outlook. However, the cryptocurrency’s price has fallen back into the cloud in recent days, with the Tenkan-Sen (blue line) falling below the Kijun-Sen (red line), confirming a downtrend. The team of analysts at Valkyrie Investments, led by Chief Investment Officer Steven McClurg, wrote in a note to clients on May 24 that “This situation signifies a decline in bullish momentum and potential for a short-term retracement within the ongoing higher timeframe uptrend.”
Bitcoin’s pullback in early March reached the lower edge of the cloud, and the subsequent rebound lifted the top cryptocurrency’s price to $31,000 by mid-April. The Valkyrie Investments analysts also added that “A price close within the cloud indicates loss of cloud support and triggers the likelihood of crossing to the other [lower] edge of the cloud. In this case, an Edge-to-Edge trade would bring the price to around $24,000.”
Current Situation of Bitcoin
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $26,246, down 2.04% in the last 24 hours. BTC, the world’s largest cryptocurrency with a market cap of $508.74 billion, has seen its trading volume increase by 25% in the last 24 hours to reach $15.8 billion.
