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Long-term Bitcoin trend indicators such as the 200-day and 200-week moving averages are currently at their highest levels ever. Anthony Pompliano, founder of investment method company Morgan Creek Digital, commented that BTC’s long-term trend is extremely strong based on this situation.
200-Day Simple Moving Average Exceeds $50,000 for the First Time
Bitcoin’s 200-day simple moving average (SMA) is currently at an all-time high of $50,178. This important technical indicator for predicting long-term price trends indicates a long-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin. According to BuyBitcoinWorldwide, the indicator peaked on May 6, 2024.
The 200-day SMA calculates Bitcoin’s closing price over the last 200 days and divides by 200 to smooth out short-term price fluctuations, providing traders and analysts with a long-term trend indicator. When the price of the largest cryptocurrency is trading above this indicator, it typically indicates a long-term upward trend, while prices below the 200-day moving average suggest the opposite.
Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box on May 6, Pompliano commented on the 200-day SMA exceeding $50,000 for the first time, saying, “Even though Bitcoin’s daily price is volatile, it continues its upward trend in the long run. Don’t let Bitcoin’s sideways movement lull you. The long-term trend is as strong as ever.”
Pompliano also noted that Grayscale’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) saw its first entries on May 3. Since converting from a trust to a spot ETF in mid-January, GBTC has seen more than $17.5 billion in net outflows, followed by $63 million in entries on May 3, and this momentum is continuing. According to preliminary data from Farside Investors, the ETF saw an additional entry of $3.9 million on May 6, albeit smaller.
According to price models designed by experienced on-chain analyst Willy Woo, the 200-week moving average, a much longer-term trend indicator, is also at an all-time high of just over $34,000. This indicates that the annual trend outlook for Bitcoin is much stronger and more bullish compared to the 200-day SMA.
Spot Price Significantly Above Realized Price
On the other hand, Bitcoin’s price surpassed the 200-week moving average level in mid-October 2023 and has been trading above this level since then. Spot prices are also significantly higher than the realized price (RP) indicator, which is around $29,000.
For those unfamiliar, RP is a measure obtained by dividing the value of all BTCs at the price they last transacted on-chain by the circulating BTC, and it is another long-term trend indicator.
