Bitcoin has sustained a recovery from its decline in June, recording consecutive higher monthly closes for three months. Analyst Ben Cowen noted that this upward trend has shifted the burden of confirmation to market bears, especially after Bitcoin surpassed its May high. Cowen suggested that July may have marked the cycle low for Bitcoin within the current four-year period.
Stronger monthly closes and cycle perspectives
Koyfin data showed that Bitcoin’s lowest point during the recent downturn came on June 30. Since then, the asset’s monthly closing prices have advanced progressively. In July, Bitcoin closed 45.13% below its October 1, 2025 level. This deficit narrowed to 31.21% by the end of August and 27.05% by September, when Bitcoin posted its strongest monthly close since December.
Despite this improvement, Bitcoin remains down more than 25% compared to October 2025, even with its price now back above $85,000. Market sentiment among retail investors has stabilized, shifting from bearish to neutral on Stocktwits, as trading discussion activity decreased notably in the past 24 hours.
Cowen, during an interview with Real Vision, described the timing of this suggested cycle low as the earliest ever observed for Bitcoin. In prior market cycles, such lows have exclusively occurred during the fourth quarter. This development could signal a potential shift in the typical market pattern, though Cowen cautioned against assuming that past performance can guarantee future outcomes.
Mini dictionary: Four-year Bitcoin cycle, a widely followed market rhythm tied to the Bitcoin halving event, which reduces miner rewards approximately every four years and often leads to major shifts in supply and demand dynamics.
Resistance levels and short-term market structure
Another perspective comes from crypto analyst That Martini Guy, who highlighted similarities between Bitcoin’s current range-bound pattern and its late 2025 consolidation phase. Previously, Bitcoin established a range between $86,000 and $95,000 before moving lower; in the current market, the price has faced rejection near the $87,000 mark.
According to That Martini Guy, a firm break and sustained movement above $87,000 would undermine historical parallels and strengthen the view that current price action is part of an ongoing rebound. However, another rejection at this level, followed by a breakdown below the recent range, might enhance the significance of the comparison to past patterns.
| Period | Range | Key Resistance | Consequence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Late 2025 | $86,000 – $95,000 | $87,000 | Downturn after consolidation |
| Current | $85,000 – $87,000 | $87,000 | Potential rebound continuation or further correction |
Broader outlook and market drivers
StoneX, a global financial services company, published its outlook for Bitcoin in the fourth quarter of 2026, providing further context to the ongoing market cycle. StoneX argued that Bitcoin could be nearing the end of its bear phase, referencing positive developments such as increased buying in Bitcoin ETFs, higher valuations, and greater holding by long-term investors.
StoneX reported that Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score had recovered to around 0.8. This reading, higher than past bear market lows but still well below cycle peaks, may point to evolving market dynamics. The company suggested that the relatively steady MVRV Z-Score signals possible changes in the structural behavior of the Bitcoin market.
Other key inputs identified by StoneX included the resumption of ETF inflows, which reached nearly $57 billion after growing by $4 billion during the latest quarter. Long-term holders now control more than 63% of all Bitcoin in circulation, reflecting increased conviction among early adopters and institutional investors regarding Bitcoin’s potential value in the market.
Bitcoin’s monthly closes have strengthened consecutively since June, while analysts remain focused on whether $87,000 will act as a breakthrough resistance or signal a renewed correction if the level is not surpassed.
Macroeconomic climate and market risks
StoneX also addressed current macroeconomic conditions, noting that expanding global money supply could underpin Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative in the long run. At the same time, rising inflation and changing monetary policies from central banks might create headwinds for risk assets including Bitcoin.
Should interest rates continue to climb, risk assets could face mounting pressure. However, concerns around government debt and the potential devaluation of fiat currencies could encourage further demand for Bitcoin as a long-term store of value.
Market observers emphasize that while improved monthly closes and the break above the May high support the case for a July cycle low, short-term attention is on the $87,000 resistance. Sustained movement above or below this level could help define Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming months.
