Bitcoin rebounded over the weekend from a critical on-chain support area, capturing investors’ attention as eyes shifted once again to the 78200 dollar level. According to recent market data, BTC could be gearing up for a new bull run toward the monumental 100000 dollar mark in the coming months.
Short-term investors hold the line
Over the weekend, Bitcoin climbed about 2.5 percent to reach 74000 dollars, sparking interest as it recovered from around the 72500 dollar range. This region is almost identical to the average cost basis for coins held for three to six months, often considered the favored territory of mid-term investors.
Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode reports that the average acquisition cost for this cohort of investors sits at approximately 71400 dollars. Analyst Marcus Corvinus describes this as the most robust near-term support level for Bitcoin. According to Corvinus, the crucial price target to watch in the short term is 78200 dollars, matching the “realized price” for Bitcoin held three to six months—the very threshold that was lost during the selloff in October 2025 and now looks poised for a retest.
Corvinus comments, “This group of investors is still in profit, so they have a strong incentive to defend this level.”
Mini glossary: The “realized price” is the average cost basis calculated not when an asset is sold on the market, but based on the last time it moved on-chain. On-chain analysts use this figure to assess whether specific investor groups are in profit or at a loss.
Technical data and bullish projections
Historically, when Bitcoin managed to close above the average cost basis of its three to six month holders, it has signaled the start of significant long-term uptrends. Since 2017, similar patterns have delivered an average gain of 2.3 percent in 30 days, 21.9 percent over three months, and a staggering 36.6 percent in six months.
If history repeats itself, current projections point to targets of 75700 dollars in one month, 90200 dollars within three months, and an ambitious 101100 dollars over six months. While short-term odds remain moderate, the success rates climb to 66.7 percent and 79.2 percent respectively for the three and six-month time frames, making medium-term positions particularly attractive.
| Period | Average Target Price | Success Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 75700 $ | 54.2 |
| 3 months | 90200 $ | 66.7 |
| 6 months | 101100 $ | 79.2 |
Bear flag formation and risk factors
Despite the recovery, Bitcoin’s technical outlook still stops short of signaling a clear breakout. The latest rally unfolded just above the lower trend line of a “bear flag” pattern, which had appeared after the pullback from the 98000 dollar peak set in 2026. The upper limit of this formation stands around the 90000 dollar region—coinciding with key Fibonacci retracement points and representing tough resistance.
If bullish momentum prevails and support holds, 90000 dollars could emerge as the next major hurdle in the coming months. However, should Bitcoin post daily closes under this trendline, there’s downside risk for the price to fall back towards the 50000 to 60000 dollar band. In such a scenario, the recent bounce might prove to be part of a broader correction rather than the start of an enduring uptrend.
