Market focus has shifted from the Federal Reserve’s rate decision to a recurring price dynamic in Bitcoin that has emerged around Federal Open Market Committee meetings in 2025. Analysis shows that, regardless of whether the Fed maintains, raises, or lowers rates, Bitcoin typically sees price declines in the two days following these gatherings.
Consistent Downturns After FOMC Meetings
Research by digital asset investment firm Two Prime highlights a clear trend: out of the eight FOMC meetings so far this year, Bitcoin fell within 48 hours after seven of them. This pattern appeared independently of the Fed’s specific action, whether a rate hold or a cut. January’s meeting resulted in a nearly 27% drop in Bitcoin, while the March meeting saw a 13% decline. June, July, September, and December also brought negative 48-hour returns ranging from 5% to 10%. Even an unexpected rate cut in October coincided with a 28% slide. Only the May meeting broke this trend, delivering a notable 15% rally.
Volatility Trumps Fed’s Actual Decision
The data suggests that the meeting itself, rather than the decision, drives market dynamics. With odds of a rate hold at today’s meeting estimated at 95%, the outcome seems largely anticipated. However, the analysis indicates that Bitcoin has tended to sell off after the meeting even when the announcement differed from what markets expected. The event’s volatility effect appears decoupled from policy direction.
Two Prime notes that this phenomenon may reflect how traders position ahead of FOMC events. Investors typically reduce risk in anticipation, then unwind trades once the outcome is clear, adding pressure across assets like Bitcoin that are sensitive to shifts in risk appetite. As a result, the post-meeting window often brings significant, if temporary, selling.
Two Prime is a digital asset investment manager specializing in quantitative and macro-driven strategies across the crypto sector. The firm is known for its data-centric analysis of market cycles and is active in producing industry research reports for institutional and retail crypto investors.
Macroeconomic drivers feed into this scenario as well. Persistently high oil prices, near $100 per barrel, combined with elevated inflation, have limited the Fed’s ability to signal future policy easing. A “higher for longer” narrative around interest rates removes a potential driver for short-term upside in risk markets, including digital assets.
Bitcoin’s recent price action mirrors these headwinds. After reaching $75,800 on March 17, it has pulled back to about $72,000. Technical signals—such as the neutralization of the 4-hour RSI—and a spike in profit-taking by short-term holders reinforce the possibility of increased supply in the near term.
The one wildcard in the current setup is the $2.2 billion in new Tether (USDT) reportedly transferred to Binance earlier today. This influx could provide some buffer, as fresh capital might be used to absorb downward momentum. Whether this is enough to offset the well-established 48-hour slide pattern remains in question.
With a long track record of post-FOMC turbulence, the next two days will offer a test of whether incoming stablecoin liquidity can change the established pattern for Bitcoin after major macro events.
