As Bitcoin 
$78,914 prices inch toward the year’s final quarter, they seem poised for a significant peak. While the pace of the price surge has decelerated, experts anticipate that the cycle could extend, reaching as high as $150,000. This expectation is bolstered by the growing interest from institutional investors and a decrease in circulating supply. However, analysts caution about potential abrupt corrections within the cycle.
Cycle Analysis Reveals Continued Quest for Peak
Analyst Egrag Crypto has compared Bitcoin’s four major bullish cycles with the S&P 500’s performance, unveiling a remarkable chart. This analysis shows that while Bitcoin’s growth rate has diminished with each cycle, the bullish periods have become longer. The growth was 61% in the first cycle, dropping to 42% in the second, and 35% in the third. In the current cycle, a 27% growth is expected by December.
Egrag Crypto noted that the slowdown in growth indicates market maturation. According to the analyst, the reduced growth rate signifies a prolonged rally, not its conclusion. Calculations show an average decrease of 11.3% per cycle, with an overall 56% reduction in growth, yet the price chart maintains an upward trend.
Divergence among experts is apparent. Analyst CryptoBirb stated that 93% of the bull run is completed, expecting the peak in October or November. However, some analysts suggest that the traditional four-year cycle might deviate due to the institutional factor, leading to unexpected outcomes.
Liquidity Decline Puts $150,000 in the Spotlight
A recent report by CryptoQuant highlighted peculiarities in the liquidity balance of exchanges. Analyst Arab Chain, drawing from this report, pointed out that the BTC supply held outside exchanges has surged to historical levels, while the supply available for trading has dwindled. This scenario weakens the selling side, exerting upward pressure on prices.
Arab Chain emphasized the market’s fragile bullish run. If institutional investors and major wallet holders retain their assets for extended periods, the price could exceed $150,000. However, he cautioned that sudden sales could trigger significant pullbacks in a low liquidity environment, potentially bringing the price down to the $90,000–$100,000 range.
