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The recent increase in Bitcoin’s active supply within 180 days may indicate the approach of a new selling wave. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. highlighted that the rise in active supply data suggests that coins, which had long remained dormant, are re-entering circulation. Although the rate only increased by about 2.4% in June over the past 30 days, it coincides with an early distribution phase as the price hovers around $118,000. With Bitcoin 
$120,203 having a market cap of approximately $2.35 trillion, a possible breakout above $120,000 may elevate the active supply gradually to the 8-10% band and then to the 18-20% range seen in previous peaks.
Increasing Supply Movement May Trigger Sales
According to Axel Adler Jr.’s analysis, the share of supply moved within the last 180 days is observed to be increasing. This surge is often related to profit-taking or the distribution of coins to different addresses. Such behavior strengthens the tendency to move coins as the price increases, indicating a new trend onset despite its current low level.
Historical examples support this interpretation. In spring 2024, when the price climbed to $70,000, supply activity jumped to 20%. In December 2024, as Bitcoin breached $100,000 for the first time, the rate rose to 18%.
Today’s scenario is different yet similar. The rate is increasing gradually, suggesting that while a significant selling pressure hasn’t emerged yet, the groundwork is being laid. Initially, the market may accelerate past $120,000 before experiencing a moderate selling wave.
Early Distribution Phase in Bitcoin and Possible Scenarios
The limited increase in active supply data in June indicates the beginning of a cycle. According to Adler, if the price remains strong, the rate could first climb to the 8-10% band and later reach previous peaks. During this process, the activation of supply will also influence investor psychology. While increased profit-taking will pressure the price, new entries will keep the wave alive.
The slight pullback in price over the past 24 hours is not decisive in the overall picture. The market cap remains enormous with ample room for movement. Therefore, short-term declines do not shadow the long-term distribution trend; the key determinant here will be the rhythm of active supply and its synchronous movement with the price.
In comparison to past cycles, today’s lower rate indicates that sellers are not rushing yet. This supports the view that the rally isn’t over, and only a breathing phase is being experienced. Once the $120,000 threshold is crossed, the data could spike more sharply.
