Bitcoin may decline to $10,000 if the US stock market faces a 20% correction, according to Mike McGlone, senior macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. McGlone suggests the cryptocurrency’s recent weakness could serve as an early signal of wider financial-market stress.
Strategist says Bitcoin’s trend signals broader risk
In a post published on October 16, McGlone highlighted Bitcoin’s retreat from its 2025 peak above $100,000, alongside higher government bond yields and tighter monetary policy. He stated that these trends could signal a potential reversal across risk assets.
McGlone’s scenario would represent a roughly 88% decline from the cryptocurrency’s recent trading level of around $82,000. However, he emphasized that this outcome depends on a significant US equities selloff, not as a confirmed forecast that Bitcoin will hit that price.
McGlone’s rationale centers on Bitcoin’s sensitivity to global liquidity and shifts in investor risk sentiment. He notes that Bitcoin has often preceded sharp moves in speculative assets during periods of market expansion.
Bloomberg Intelligence’s analysis compares 50-week moving averages for Bitcoin, the S&P 500, metals, and copper futures. The data shows Bitcoin’s moving average declining following a strong rise, while the other indicators have shown relative stability.
McGlone says this divergence may suggest that cryptocurrencies are reacting to tighter financial conditions ahead of traditional assets. He points to the recent drop below $83,000, coinciding with rising Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, and liquidations in leveraged crypto positions.
He argues that higher bond yields increase the appeal of interest-bearing assets, making non-yielding investments like Bitcoin comparatively less attractive during periods of tighter monetary policy.
The connection between real yields and Bitcoin performance has become more pronounced as monetary conditions have tightened, weighing on demand for speculative assets.
Institutional flows and industry response
Not all analysts subscribe to McGlone’s bearish scenario. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju challenged the projection, highlighting $58 billion in institutional Bitcoin ETF inflows and the corporate holding of 1.3 million BTC.
Ju indicated that even significant outflows from these institutional positions would leave Bitcoin’s onchain cost-basis floor near $30,000, not $10,000.
He further questioned the historical precedent for such a severe drop. Ju calculated that Bitcoin at $10,000 would yield an MVRV ratio of 0.2, well below the 0.6 ratio observed during the lowest periods in the cryptocurrency’s history.
Institutional participation remains volatile. In two recent sessions, Bitcoin funds saw $729 million in ETF withdrawals, underlining how shifts in sentiment can affect prices.
Despite these arguments, Ju acknowledged that historical data and cost-basis levels cannot conclusively prevent price moves during severe market downturns.
McGlone’s comments come as financial organizations increasingly discuss the risk of a large correction in US equities. The International Monetary Fund has warned of the potential for AI-driven stock selloffs propagating through leveraged markets, exposing new vulnerabilities.
A simultaneous market decline in both stocks and cryptocurrencies could deepen investor losses, especially among those with leveraged exposure to both asset classes.
While the longer-term investment outlook for Bitcoin remains a point of debate, asset manager VanEck has separately suggested Bitcoin could reach $500,000 if it absorbs a greater portion of gold’s monetary value.
Ultimately, McGlone’s model focuses on macroeconomic pressure and historic market behaviors, while other industry viewpoints prioritize institutional adoption and network valuation. The key uncertainty is whether Bitcoin’s recent decline signals further weakness in stocks, or if it will stabilize independently—without the extreme downturn McGlone’s scenario outlines.
Mini dictionary: MVRV—Market-Value-to-Realized-Value is a ratio used to evaluate whether a cryptocurrency is overvalued or undervalued by comparing its current market capitalization to the collective acquisition cost of all coins in circulation.
