Now that the flow of economic data has calmed and the Federal Reserve’s policy path is mostly set, the market faces the hard reality of pricing in current conditions. While BTC remains resilient for the time being, the risk is rising as we begin to see closing prices below $80,400. Today, we review updated outlooks from different analysts on Bitcoin, and examine what experts expect for the rest of May.
Global political tensions impact markets
Fars News Agency reported in the early hours that, following an agreement on navigational protocols in the Strait of Hormuz, Chinese vessels have begun transiting the strait. However, no concrete steps benefiting the US regarding the Strait solution have yet emerged from China. In fact, former US President Donald Trump indicated yesterday that China would not be pleased with any changes to the status of the strait, and that Beijing shares Washington’s perspective on this issue.
US China summit yields limited results
What were the outcomes of the China summit? After talks with China, the US secured an order for 200 Boeing aircraft. Announcements were also made on progressing US agriculture and soybean agreements. Yet, apart from these, no major breakthroughs have been announced. As Trump departed Beijing, he stated that relations with China would become “much stronger than before,” but the substance of that promise will have to be filled in the coming days, especially amid the ongoing disputes with Iran.
Although Trump indicated he was open to the idea of halting the Iranian nuclear program for 20 years, he emphasized once again, upon his return from China, the need for real commitments. If we see major attacks on Iran’s infrastructure in the coming week, it should not surprise investors in the context of these developments.
Bitcoin outlook diverges among experts
Jelle, among the prominent analysts, is not particularly optimistic as a fresh local bottom has formed. Having seen BTC rejected from the 200-day EMA and following a bearish divergence, he assesses the current outlook as far from positive. Like many others, he believes that a deeper correction toward $75,000 or below may be due, especially after the recent rally during the first part of May.
“Unless the bulls step up and push today, I am fairly certain we’ll see a retracement later in May.” – Jelle
Trader_XO points out that the tight volatility in recent ranges has created potential trading opportunities for short-term investors and encourages focusing on these setups. He remains uncertain about the short-term direction, and plans to wait to see if the price closes above or below the current and last week’s VWAP before making a move.
