The supply of Bitcoin on exchanges and in spot ETFs is on the rise due to increasing inflows, sparking concerns of intensified selling pressure. In recent days, combined exchange inflows and ETF outflows have delivered a local sell-off of around 34,000 BTC. Despite renewed investor interest, experts emphasize that additional spot demand is now critical for Bitcoin’s price to regain higher upward momentum.
BTC flows in exchanges and ETFs
According to well-known crypto market observer Axel Adler Jr., last week saw a net inflow of 18,000 BTC to centralized exchanges. This signals a greater inclination among investors to convert BTC into liquid assets, with selling tendencies intensifying. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed net outflows totaling approximately 16,000 BTC during the same period. Adler highlights that institutional funds have not fully absorbed this supply, amplifying the prevailing risk-off mood in the market.
Adler explained, “It’s difficult to expect powerful upward momentum unless exchange flows turn neutral or positive.”
The combined effect of these two indicators has generated a noticeable 34,000 BTC in sell-side pressure, influencing price action over the past week.
Spot and derivatives market data
Glassnode analyst cryptovizart points out that daily trading volume in ETFs has now fallen below $20 billion—a significant drop from the over $50 billion seen at the end of 2025. This decline in spot trading volumes reveals waning speculative demand in the short term and suggests current rallies lack sufficient support from buyers.
On the price front, Bitcoin briefly dipped below the $75,000 support but quickly rebounded to test $77,800. This sharp recovery was attributed partly to speculation about a possible peace agreement between the US and Iran, which has lowered perceptions of market risk.
Derivatives open interest further reflects changing demand: total open Bitcoin interest has declined from 268,000 BTC to 250,000 BTC, then rebounded slightly to 254,000 BTC. This drop indicates a wave of “short covering,” as those betting against BTC rush to close positions to avoid mounting losses, which adds to upward price momentum.
Mini glossary: Short covering happens when investors who previously opened “short” positions (betting on a price drop) quickly buy back assets to avoid further losses as prices start to rise, which can accelerate upward price movements.
| Period | Net BTC Inflow to Exchanges | Net BTC Outflow from ETFs | Total Sell Pressure (BTC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last week | +18,000 | +16,000 | 34,000 |
Market stats and investor sentiment
In the futures market, funding rates fell from 0.008% to 0.0026% during the recent rally. While still positive, this drop indicates a reduction in overly bullish positions. Rei Researcher notes that since February 2026, the average daily funding rate has been negative, suggesting short positions continue to dominate and are effectively paying long positions.
Glassnode data further demonstrates that sell pressure is beginning to ease. Price momentum has weakened by 21.7%, while cumulative spot market volume has surged by 77.2%, and cumulative derivatives volume is up 35.5%. In summary, even as selling volumes decline, overall market equilibrium is improving.
What’s needed for a renewed rally?
Analysts caution that hitting a new $80,000 high requires parallel growth in both open interest and spot market buying. Current indicators suggest short-term sell pressure is easing, but for a stronger and more sustainable rally, renewed capital inflows and increased spot demand are essential.
