Veteran technical analyst Peter Brandt has issued a cautionary note to the crypto market, warning that optimism surrounding Bitcoin could be premature. Brandt emphasized that a reliable bottom formation has yet to appear for Bitcoin, suggesting that the current market remains more fragile than many expect. Known since the 1970s for his expertise in technical analysis across global financial markets, Brandt believes that investors could be misled by the recent short-term rally, interpreting it as a true recovery rather than a temporary uptick.
The impact of US inflation on Bitcoin
According to Brandt’s analysis, the latest price surge might give the appearance of a new bull run, but in reality, it is merely a short-lived technical response within a broader local downtrend. His position is based both on widespread market enthusiasm and several key technical indicators currently shaping the market outlook.
One of the main factors reinforcing Brandt’s cautious outlook is the recent macroeconomic data from the US. Notably, the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) figures significantly exceeded expectations. While markets anticipated a 4.8 percent annual rise, the actual PPI shot up to 6 percent. The core PPI also surprised to the upside at 5.2 percent, outpacing forecasts yet again.
Upward revisions and mounting pressure on BTC
Official statements revealed that the US Bureau of Labor Statistics has revised its April figures higher, moving from an initial 4 percent to 4.3 percent. This adjustment, previously understated amid hopes for Middle East stability and oil price normalization, can no longer obscure the real scale of inflation. With inflation climbing, analysts are increasingly convinced that these pressures are weighing directly on Bitcoin, the crypto market’s bellwether.
Brandt’s technical outlook points out that Bitcoin has been moving within a downward channel since February. Bitcoin, recently trading around $79,660, was firmly rejected at the upper boundary of this channel. Part of the reasoning is that apart from some brief liquidity influxes, inflationary concerns have yet to be fully absorbed by price action.
Brandt contends that if Bitcoin closes any day below $79,145—as indicated by the Average True Range (ATR) indicator—it would signal that buyers are capitulating. In this case, Bitcoin would likely retreat first towards the middle of its current channel, then potentially even lower.
Despite continued optimism in broader markets, early signs of weakness are emerging in the risk-seeking crypto sector. With less than three weeks until June, global oil inventories are reportedly approaching critical levels, further fueling uncertainty. Together, these developments are feeding concerns that Bitcoin has yet to establish a definitive bottom, raising the specter of a prolonged correction phase.
Current Bitcoin price action is heavily influenced by short-term speculative liquidity rather than long-term technical or fundamental anchors. Brandt maintains that the search for a sustainable bottom could continue until the crypto market finds a more realistic footing.
