BTC is searching for a new daily low, and after a gradual rise, we are seeing sharp downward candles again. Altcoin investors have seen significant losses due to BTC’s trend. Moreover, recovery cannot start because BTC volatility continuously pressures altcoins. A strong signal is flashing for ADA Coin, one of the largest altcoins.
Cardano (ADA)
One of the largest altcoins by market value, ADA Coin was the largest PoS altcoin until ETH transitioned to the PoS mechanism. Its price has significantly declined during the downturn over the past few months. However, a larger portion of investors has now risen to the long-term holder class.
Data from the metric tracking wallet holding periods shows that the number of long-term investors has hit an all-time high. The number of long-term investors, reaching 3.2 million, tends to decrease at peaks and increase at lows.
For example, when ADA Coin reached $3.1 in September 2021, the number of long-term holders began to decline. In January 2023, it started to increase, indicating the beginning of a new bull cycle. At that time, the price briefly saw a peak of $0.7.
Under current conditions, with the ADA Coin price falling to $0.33 and below, the increase in the number of long-term investors historically signals a new peak. However, BTC is not supporting the bulls for now because giants like NYSE and NASDAQ have withdrawn their BTC option product offers.
ADA Coin Price Prediction
Although historical data suggests a rise, Cardano lags behind competitors like Solana in attracting new users. If the weakness in network interest continues, the increase in the number of holders, along with the decline in BTC price, could reverse the expectation of a rise.
Another indicator to watch for the price is the MVRV data. This indicator, which tracks profitability for certain periods, is used to identify dips and peaks. The 30-day MVRV ratio for ADA Coin is around -10%. Generally, when MVRV is between -7.66% and -27.32% (in loss), it signals a dip and a rise is expected. However, since the 30-day MVRV historically has the potential to drop to -27.32%, short-term rise expectations are also dashed here.
RSI is below 40, and sellers are dominant. Under these conditions, a drop to $0.31 could occur. In the opposite scenario, targets could be $0.37 and $0.45.
