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The United States officially announced a peace plan aimed at halting the war between Ukraine and Russia. The details of this proposal, which has been presented to the European Union, are noteworthy. It states that the plan would effectively freeze the war, allowing the territories of Ukraine occupied by Russia to remain under Moscow’s control. Additionally, Ukraine’s aspiration to join NATO would likely be taken off the table. But will this resolve everything?
The Russia-Ukraine War
Ukraine has previously sought support from the EU while striving for NATO membership. However, Trump opposes this. The end of global chaos and the normalization of markets necessitate the conclusion of this war. Today, the US announced a peace plan for Ukraine, suggesting a reduction of sanctions on Russia.
Simultaneously, the territories seized by Russia will remain in its possession. While some figures may be exaggerated, the cost of the war for Russia has reached 1 trillion dollars, compelling Ukraine to make certain sacrifices. It remains unclear how the EU and Ukraine will respond, but if it devolves into something akin to a mineral agreement, the implications for cryptocurrencies could be negative.
Cryptocurrency Prices May Decline
Discussions regarding tariffs are ongoing. Meanwhile, Japan expressed a desire to finalize agreements quickly due to businesses struggling. China, although not at the presidential level, remains in contact with the US. In yesterday’s announcement, Trump stated that communications had begun with Xi’s knowledge and that discussions were underway.
It’s possible that Trump could hold an in-person meeting with the Chinese President before June. Despite China’s attempts to appear strong, the narrative of becoming a comparable global power to the US doesn’t hold true. China, too, must negotiate under reasonable conditions.
What about the markets? The likelihood of a recession has been priced in, leading to investor anxiety. The risk of a downturn in cryptocurrencies is tied to these recession fears. According to Polymarket, Bloomberg is increasingly viewing a recession as likely, similar to predictions seen in the last elections. While Bloomberg and others predicted Harris would win, Polymarket frequently assigned higher probabilities to the current president, reflecting a consensus formed by a large group of Polymarket users.
Nic wrote the following:
“The likelihood of the US entering a recession in 2025 (as shown in the graph)
– Polymarket
– Bloomberg surveys
– Differences between 10-year and 2-year treasury yields according to the Bloomberg model
The most intriguing aspect is that Polymarket odds are at peak levels. Could this be similar to an election? Is it the wisdom of crowds?”
