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Cardano (ADA) formed a local high at $0.81 about a month ago but has been retracting its gains since then. At the time of writing, it is trading at $0.585, a 26.5% decrease. A recent report indicated that whales have been offloading their ADA tokens during the downturn.
Current Data on ADA
In the past month, ADA addresses have parted with some of their tokens. The number of wallets holding between 1,000 and 1 million ADA was on a declining trend. The average age of cryptocurrencies (90-day metric) on the charts also fell sharply in the second half of March but began to recover in the last two weeks. This indicated that some accumulation had started again. The MVRV ratio was also in negative territory, suggesting that investors faced unrealized losses and that the token was undervalued.
Another measure for tracking a token’s network valuation is the network value to transactions (NVT) ratio. The 7-day simple moving average of NVT showed that the metric rose to 166 on April 6th. This was nearly as high as the 185 value seen in May 2023. This indicated that ADA was overvalued and contradicted the findings of the MVRV. The 7-day SMA of social dominance for the cryptocurrency fell sharply after April 24th but has risen again over the past week. However, social volume has been gradually decreasing since mid-March.
ADA Price Prediction
The sentiment for the majority of the past month has been negative, reflecting the bearish trend among social media participants. This coincided with the price declines ADA has experienced in recent weeks. Technical analysis of the 1-day chart showed very little bullish activity during this timeframe. There has not yet been a 1-day trade below the low of $0.568 seen at the end of February.
The weekly chart showed a strong uptrend for ADA when it broke the December low of $0.46, which was April 2023’s lowest peak, and continued to rise. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was at 41, which could indicate a strong bearish trend. Fibonacci retracement levels suggest the next support level that could attract prices is $0.525. On the other hand, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) has been on a steady uptrend since the beginning of February. This could be an encouraging sign that even a drop to $0.525 could eventually reverse, signaling that the market may not enter a bearish phase.
