Cardano showed a modest recovery on Friday, with ADA rising almost 2% to trade near $0.2156 after suffering a 6% decline in the prior session. Despite this limited rebound, ADA remains below its key moving averages and the previous rising support trendline, highlighting persistent technical pressures on the cryptocurrency.
Large investors show mixed positioning
Data from on-chain analytics platform Santiment revealed that wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA controlled 37.93% of the circulating supply on Friday, a decrease from 38.27% reported on October 10. This reduction suggests that some sizable investors trimmed their ADA holdings in recent days, although reclassification of wallet categories could have contributed to these shifts.
Meanwhile, the largest investors—wallets with more than 100 million ADA—took the opposite approach. Their share of the ADA supply increased from 15.92% to 16.04% over the same period, indicating selective accumulation among top holders even as other whales reduced exposure.
The divergence in holdings reveals an uneven approach among large investors, rather than blanket selling across the board.
| Holder Group | October 10 | October 18 |
|---|---|---|
| 10M – 100M ADA | 38.27% | 37.93% |
| >100M ADA | 15.92% | 16.04% |
Santiment is a blockchain analytics provider that tracks on-chain metrics, including investor behavior, whale activity, and token distribution.
Mini dictionary: Santiment is an on-chain data analytics platform that monitors cryptocurrency wallet distributions, investor activity, and other blockchain metrics to help investors assess market sentiment and asset flows.
The share of ADA supply in profit also slid notably, dropping from 30.78% to 17.8%. This shift means significantly fewer Cardano tokens now trade above their acquisition cost, reflecting both price declines and potential unrealized losses.
Mixed whale activity and falling supply in profit show that Cardano’s rebound is accompanied by pressure from large holders and weak sentiment among investors.
Derivatives market reflects reduced risk appetite
Derivatives data from CoinGlass indicated that open interest in ADA futures declined 3.3% to $467.97 million over the past 24 hours. Falling open interest alongside the recent price drop is typically linked to traders closing positions and reducing leverage exposure.
Because open interest is denominated in dollars, declines can also result from lower ADA prices. Liquidations over the same period totaled about $1.08 million, with $1.02 million coming from long positions—a sign that bullish traders bore the brunt of forced closures as prices fell.
Despite these liquidations, the funding rate in ADA perpetual futures remains positive at 0.0038%, highlighting that traders are still paying a premium to maintain long positions. This suggests ongoing bullish positioning, although signals appear divided across investor categories.
Technical levels cap Cardano’s recovery
On the technical front, ADA continues to trade below significant resistance zones. The daily chart shows Cardano below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $0.2274 and the recently broken rising trendline near $0.2282. The 200-day EMA at $0.2322 presents an additional resistance barrier further overhead.
The Relative Strength Index, currently near 41, reflects subdued momentum, as values below 50 typically indicate weakness. The MACD has drifted further into negative territory, supporting a cautious short-term outlook for ADA.
On the downside, immediate support centers on the $0.20 mark, a key psychological and technical level. If sellers push ADA below this threshold, the price could test the August 30 low around $0.1894.
Unless ADA regains and closes above the $0.2322 region, the current move is likely a brief bounce within a broader corrective phase rather than a sustained reversal.
For any lasting recovery, analysts point to the need for ADA to reclaim the $0.2274–$0.2282 resistance zone, followed by a daily close above the 200-day EMA. Until then, Cardano is viewed as remaining in a corrective trend despite Friday’s modest advance.
